Hey everyone, dropping a quick update on BTC using the macro models from cryptoweeklies.com
March just closed out and retail sentiment is plunging (monthly crypto YouTube views dropped from 18M to 13M).
Here’s where the price action sits right now based on the data:
- First Major Support ($59k): We're currently around $66k. Our log regression model and the 200-week SMA both converge right at $59k. Breaking below this level is where historical accumulation phases begin.
- The TWAP Warning: BTC is currently sitting at Risk Level 7 against the Time Weighted Average Price (~$28k). In 2018 and 2022, lingering at this specific risk level preceded sharp, sudden drops.
- The Panic Floors: If macro conditions break down, the 2-standard deviation deep undervaluation floor sits between $44k and $48k. Meanwhile, the TWAP model points to a worst-case baseline of $40k.
TLDR: We are technically entering shallow accumulation, but the heavier macro indicators suggest the real bear market bottom hasn't arrived yet. Watch how $59k holds up.
NFA as always. The charts are available on the site if you want to verify the data yourself. Let me know what levels you guys are watching.
Posted by CryptoForecast1