May '26 WTI Contract is $111
WTI spot price is $120+
Brent spot price hit $140
Sept-Dec contracts are in in the $70s which is extreme backwardation
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html
Posted by Gnomeslikeprofit
17 Comments
Has anyone seen actual evidence of government manipulation?
Would we?
Great questions
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
-The Bee Gees
Eternal (unrealistic) optimism
I think it is because the alternative is so catastrophic that the market doesn’t really want to face it
TACO 🌮
Because its too politically damaging for the u.s and too economically costly for the rest of the world if it continues.
The market tends to be highly regarded
Because at some point Trump will stop being able to jerk the market around with his shenanigans
Maybe just maybe the market knows more than the thousands of bots + handful of traders on this sub who are so self assured of their thesis that they cant see that they consume nothing but bs news reaffirming their incorrect assumptions. Do you seriously believe that Iran can run a war for months on end before their population either a.) starves out b.) uprises because they have no means of economic reprieve or c.) is economically neutered by destroying all energy infrastructure. You think the US is going to withdrawal, let the IRGC control the straight while the GCC just lets their oil output continue to decline. Get out of your online echo chamber and go talk to someone in the oil and gas industry… its not that hard budÂ
They just sell stockpile barrels under market. It makes it look like the market is going OK. And theoretically that the government sees this as a short range issues.
That said, I think the short term irrationality of markets hasn’t figured out how to price in the absolute incompetent dumbfuckery of the administration and how over their head they are.
The assumption Trump will do the smart thing for america, which is stopping bombing immediately.
Everything else just makes it worse n worse. Time is on Irans side, less ground troops which would be a slaughter.
Market manipulation
Ships going through the strait increasing each day
For better or worse trump prioritizes the markets. In all likelihood this dipshit will just pull out and claim false victory to save face.
I want to short those Sep-Dec $70 contracts! HARD. There’s a zero percent chance of $70 oil later this year!
Taking the question as is – the futures market is forward looking. It seeks to lock in a certain price or hedge at a certain price.
I feel that futures are still around $70 because there are very powerful incentives to lower the price of oil. A worldwide global recession for instance, will inherently be a drag on the price of oil.
Iran is also getting a number of side deals made. China and India at a minimum for sure are probably daily on the phone to Iran working out agreements for shipments to pass. This means that not as much oil over time may be blocked even if the war drags on.
If we take the US at their word, they will cease combat operations in 3 weeks.
If that actually holds true that too will inherently be a negative for oil prices.
There are risks accumulating but their are also a lot of catalysts for prices to fall.
I agree the futures market is being too optimistic. On the other hand if I’m already incredibly profitable at $70 a barrel oil I won’t feel too bad if I cheaply lock in that price for the rest of the year.