Oil almost ripped past $100 after the Iran headlines and everyone was calling for $120 next. Then Trump starts talking about “winding down” and suddenly WTI can’t hold triple digits.
Nothing about supply really changed overnight — it’s just expectations. Market went from “WW3 premium” to “maybe it’s not that bad” in a couple of press statements.
Kinda wild how narrative alone can knock $10 off a barrel. Makes you wonder how much of this move was fundamentals vs. pure positioning and panic.
Are we actually capped under $100 now or is this just a reset before the next leg up?
https://i.redd.it/x5nq6xw26ftg1.jpeg
Posted by Carti_2s
35 Comments
Time to buy again.
WTI is sitting at $112 so this post has no credibility
I’m forever shocked at how effective tweets are
Imagine telling traders in the 20th century about this
Am I missing something
https://preview.redd.it/j4ek7qiq6ftg1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=910eca15aef5df488d29643e19ea1de7fcf7eed5
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It’s quite an odd event in recent memory because the price is literally down to one man. If trump ends the war tomorrow then the price won’t plummet entirely due to the damage to infrastructure and backlog, but it also won’t fly up. This is why these announcements are actually affecting value.
Donnie is OP
Did you type this 2 weeks ago and just post it now?
The fuck is this. WTI is highest in 4 years!
He’s going to keep molesting the prices until it no longer works – it will stop working once the supply effect starts to come in
Just look at spot price of oil on ships. Eventually reality is going to set in.
Does anyone(experts) think this war is gonna wind down soon? Fr There is no exit strategy…
Discontinue the lithium
Someone told me its the algos and hft thats doing all this crazy price swings. I think different
Oil is going to $200 because i’m long that the world want to me suffer
You must be taking the short bus to school
Lol his Easter shit post is gonna change that narrative
op awakens from week long coma
I’d be interested to see different “news” items that made wild swings when Russia Ukraine war started.
*”Nothing about supply really changed overnight”*
Besides Iran confirming some nations can cross the strait and sanctions on Russia being relaxed and countries confirming they’ll use their strategic reserves…
They literally just slapped some Trump quotes on a graph and said implied those quotes were the causation lmfao. Full on regime propaganda this is. Shame on CME Group and Bloomberg.
I think they mean below $150. ( LOL @Trump comment March 12, that the war is almost complete.)
As a worker in the industry, I see the graph and his name. The word(s) “Shitcunt” comes to mind immediately.
What you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Bro have you lived under a rock for the 4-5 days?
huhhhhh???
PRAISE BE TO ALLAH
I don’t understand why anyone trades on Trump’s statements. If anything, it’s better to trade contrarian.
The rise in price in March was just the market getting scared about the upcoming supply reduction.
Because of the oil already in transit and the releases from the reserves, the actual hit was mostly not felt yet.
But it’s now April, Trump’s still “2-3 weeks away” from ending this and the oil in transit/reserves is going to start running out.
When refineries start cutting back production no amount of tweets will keep the price down.
https://preview.redd.it/cub6rnng7ftg1.jpeg?width=1100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2db0f752598a9cb5a17d3533808c0358128fde78
Lol OP must be an AI
March 23: Trump says “productive talks.” Oil drops from $114 to $99. A $15 move. Massive.
March 31: Pezeshkian “prepared to end war.” Oil drops from $104 to ~$93. About $11. Smaller.
April 1: Trump national address, “nearing completion.” Oil dips to $97.50 but recovers to $104.50 the same night. Recovery faster.
April 5 (today): Trump says “negotiations going well, high chance of deal by April 7.” Oil hasn’t even opened yet to react, but based on the trend, each successive jawbone produces a smaller dip and faster recovery.
The pattern is degrading. Traders are learning.
$10 gas by EOY
well, he better put his lips to work and get that raging green stick soft again
Those are Friday evening prices, dufus. OP needs to ride the shortbus.
And physical delivery prices for just a few weeks out is around 145 while futures for next year are in the 70s.
Hard to know where things will end up because so many of the variables are incredibly volatile.
Oil will however go up until demand comes down or supply to the market is restored. Supply from Russia is cut. Strait is closed. Infrastructure in middle east has been hit. Supply will likely not be restored for a long time. So then your basically banking on demand dropping off a cliff. That’s a very ugly recession with possibly a great deal of inflation tossed in as well.
So what scenario do you think is probable?
I think we are probably 2+ years before supply is restored. Demand will drop only after the economy collapses, but the prices for anything that gets to market will likely go up. That will likely make for a liquidity crisis with a bunch of businesses failing. Even if the strait reopens tomorrow that just shifts it from a really ugly scenario to less ugly grind to restore destroyed infrastructure. Even that is likely 6+ months out for oil and several years for LNG supply. The lack of LNG will push energy demand into other types or destroy industrial manufacturing capacity in Europe.
My play is buying tlt and selling calls with a large part of my portfolio and avoiding tech. Tech depends upon AI data center build out and successfully monetizing that. The former will run into trouble due to energy issues and the latter will find the end use customers are broke. Outside of TLT I’m just slowly buying the dip in voo, rsp, and schd (plus a tiny qqq position I haven’t sold) knowing that the bottom could be significantly further below us or the next ath could be years away.