Hey everyone, just ran the latest models for Bitcoin over on cryptoweeklies.com. With the recent rally back up to $69k, BTC has technically exited the macro accumulation zone on our composite risk model.
Here is what the data is showing right now:
- Moving Averages: BTC got rejected near the 200W SMA in February. If the current rally continues, the next major resistance is the 20W SMA at $77k.
- Regression Fair Value: Our log regression model places fair value at $78k. However, the true undervaluation band (1-standard deviation) doesn't start until we drop below $59k.
- TWAP Projections: The Time Weighted Average Price is currently $28k. Historically, cycle bottoms sit about 33% above the TWAP, which maps to a $40k absolute macro floor.
- Machine Learning Floors: If we get 1 to 2 months of extended bearishness, ML models project a base drop to $58k, with a panic scenario bringing us down to the $45k range.
TLDR: The short-term trend has legs up to $77k, but the macro data suggests the deep floor for this cycle sits between $45k and $59k.
NFA as always. Let me know what levels you are tracking.
Posted by CryptoForecast1
1 Comment
Just based on what happens in the past when federal reserve charges leadership, my thinking is New fed chair needs to be sworn in, and then we will see. He has guaranteed to never reintroduce QE. The market will bring the economy to near collapse to see if he sticks to his guns. That’s when it will touch mid 40’s. But hey who knows time will tell.