Market this week in three acts:
Act 1: Ceasefire rumors. Gold up. Dollar soft. Everyone confident. My setup looks great.
Act 2: Trump speaks. "We're going to hit them extremely hard." Dollar back up. Oil $112. Gold gives it back. My setup looks like a crime scene.
Act 3: Me sitting here trying to figure out if I'm a bad trader or if the market genuinely just did that.
Honestly I think this is one of those periods where risk management is doing more work than intelligence. You can be right about everything and still get punished if your size was too big when the next headline hit.
Anyone else getting humbled this week or did I just get unlucky twice?
Oil up, USD stubborn, macro chaos everywhere and somehow I'm supposed to trust one clean setup
byu/One_Cancel7890 inwallstreetbets
Posted by One_Cancel7890
17 Comments
You’re a bad trader.
If understand correctly iran wont exist by tomorrow 8pm?
I started drinking again since Jan 2025
You might be exposed to depreciation of the dollar. Not being hedged for inflation is a common mistake.
Risk management is everything in trading. Be always prepared for an opposite move of your trade . No “conviction” trades. Your “conviction” means nothing.
Good traders never buy the news.
I’ve been taking stupid Ls left and right just because random stuff keeps happening.
The question you gotta ask yourself punk is this: how many ATR moves can I take getting punched in the mouth?
Smaller size gives you room to ride. In a trend it leaves you space to add and still be able to get out flat if it goes pear shaped.
My two cents: keep buying gold. Eventually either this clown will go away or it all ends and it doesn’t matter anymore anyway. Buy dips. Plan accordingly. We all know it’s market manipulation, try to lean into it. Buy puts when the fucker does it and just wait till the reverse. Not financial advice
https://preview.redd.it/7mjcfbppbotg1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d2d9e11537804f37a33b85db72ea8bb57f76735f
Brothers, just pray earnings can carry us through the storm.
This week? Bro it’s Monday!
Sometimes the best trade is sitting on your hands. Especially with the stupid crazy orange oompa loompa.
I think you need a job lol
Must know how to hedge in this market. A lot of stocks poised for a move higher. Have to hedge the longs with high volatile oil, defense and vix plays.
If youre looking for a short term crystal ball here youre playing a losing game. Stocks and gold cheap here. Longer the war goes on the longer the unraveling of supply chain issues. But bottom line stocks and gold goes up on resolution. Just dont play a game of when that headline hits. Probably more pain to come in the short term if youre long.
I’m still trying to process the dollar going up. Who indafuq is buying treasuries during what could be the death of the petrol dollar?
Which currency is the USD supposed to weaken against with the region glassed?