The last 4 times Trump TACO'd on this topic he announced it at least 1 day before the deadline. So far we are less than 17 hours away from the deadline he announced?
There is still chance he can TACO after 4 PM EST. He usually TACOs only during after-market hours.
But what if he doesn't TACO this time?
- Will destroying Iran's bridges and power plants actually solve any problem at all? Will it really make Iran open up the strait? They have been bombing Iran for nearly 6 weeks now. They have bombed south pars once. And they even bombed the plant that processes oil that comes out of south pars facility again yesterday.
- In what way could Iran retaliate that could seriously affect the oil prices? Iran seems to be lobbing missiles and drones at Saudi & Israel like there is no tomorrow. All of that doesn't seem to bring the futures prices of oil to 150 or anything. Markets seem to be operating under blind optimism.
- What if Iran actually closes that other strait in Red sea between Djibouti and Yemen using their Houthi allies like they are threatening to. Closing the strait of Hormuz is one thing. But the other strait is a really big thing. That will practically choke the whole world economy. I personally don't think they will be able to close it down and keep it locked for too long. Every single major western power has a military base in Djibouti. French, British, US and even Chinese. I doubt all of those countries have a base in Oman. And also Yemen is not Iran. It will be 3 to 4 times more difficult for Iran to close the other strait in my opinion.
- Also there has to be a limit to how many times he can TACO right. Most of the oil shipments to Europe that were dispatched before the war started are supposed to reach them by April 10th according to that other news article. After April 10th, if he doesn't take any action, I think the economic conditions will start to deteriorate rapidly. That I think will put pressure on him to not TACO this time I think??? We are barely 3 days away from that deadline? Maybe Europe will change their mind after April 10th??
- Russia also stopped their oil shipments from April 1st. There will be genuine scarcity of oil in the coming weeks. Again this should also put pressure on him to not TACO? Right?
What will happen if Trump doesn't TACO this time?
byu/Friendly-Nobody8023 inoil
Posted by Friendly-Nobody8023
21 Comments
[https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmno7b2tt000a3b6qhuhlr6vc](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel?post-id=cmno7b2tt000a3b6qhuhlr6vc)
seems like there’s still a chance for a deal
Iran could mine the whole Gulf with their drifting mines. That would shut down all traffic for years to come.
the end of the oil age
Nahhhh it’s just Trump vs Trump at this point.. market’s betting on the version that backs off not the one that actually follows through.. if the wrong one shows up, this gets repriced real quick
Its Tuesday, TACO Tuesdays 🌮‼️
My guess. It will half a TACO.
US will bomb some stuff, then use this as a ‘see, we follow trough, now get to the table for a deal’ and set a new deadline.
It seems like no matter what, Trump and co wants to avoid the idea that this can take months (or years) so the next thing will always be one or two weeks away. Another deadline, another deal, etc.
Iran (rightly or wrongly) is treating every strike against civilian infrastructure launched from US airbases in the Gulf as license to strike comparable infrastructure in the Gulf nations. None of it can be effectively defended. The US takes out Kharg, Iran will take out Abqaiq.
I view Trump’s threats as not just US foreign policy getting trapped in an escalation ladder, but in the 20 MMbbld supply deficit extending for years. Watch the futures market. The greatest gains seen yesterday (2026-04-06) weren’t in the front months, but in the long tail of futures extending years ahead. Any oil company can now hedge at 70+ WTI through Oct 2027. I wouldn’t advise it, as I think this dumb war will ultimately lock in 80+.
From an investment perspective, I think there’s still another doubling in many low-price/revenue Brent (non-US continental) focused E&Ps with expiring hedge books, before they’ll be overvalued. I’m at 30% exposure and should have squeezed more in.
5. Not true, Russia has not stopped oil shipments. They have stopped gasoline shipments. Their export harbors are also damaged, which reduces flow.
Well, like Iran said, they will take out the desalination plants in the middle east.
Another great plant from Trump.
He’ll fold like he always does, he’ll announce talks are going well and they’ve asked for a deal so the attack is postponed
Market will go back up then the next day Iran will confirm that nobody has talked to them and there is no deal. Then Donnie will go on his next rant and the cycle continues
The biggest concern as far as I know is Iran takes a chunknof Saudis energy off the markrt.
As far as I can tell there is three ohases we have experienced so far
Phase one; Strait is blocked, even if it opens immediatelt we are weeks away from boats getting through but due a months excess oil the bounce back will be fast once strait opens. Needless damage of wealth creation but fine.
Phase Two; As we enter month two even if Strait opens up a few months away from getting back to relatoce nornal levels. This will have inflationary and productivity costs to west snd could create famines in poor countries. The longer the blockade lasts the longer it will take to recover from because tankers cant take anymore oil and midde east countries have to start shutting down production whoch takes a long to come back online. Thia ia fairly destructicr and given enough time will cause a global recession but currenrly just on edge. If Trump Taco’d now or Iram agreed deal both parties could absolutely claim they oushed this conflict to the brink and whatever deal was made likely best both compromise to.
Phase Three; This is Saidi, Qatar and Irans snergy facilities hit in strikes and counter strikes. From oil perspectice this couls simply mean countries run out of oil. While immediatelt shock would be/ could be 200 dollar oil the bigger concern would be there is no off ramp. Its not like Tariffs where Trump can taco, half taco or compromise if countries ability to produce goes offline for a year or two the world as we know it woll not exist. Some of the consequences that COULD happen;
1. Russa re-emeeges as Superpower. The world will need its energy more than it needs Ukraine. Simply put any drone attacks on Russia will not be tolerated by China(all of asia), India etc
2. China will be greatly impacted, it may shift.to more colonial approach it will need oil and gas
3. Petro dollar will either expand dtamatically or end. USA will be very dominant in energy market but Russia will likely demand all its energynis bought in non dollar
4. USA may have to out boots on ground in Saudi, Kuwai, Bahrain, UAE. If monarchs lose ability.to have revenue they may lost their heads.
5. Israel either becimes regional super power or becomes deeply hated in the world and any politician seen as supporting them becomes black listed
6. Iran gets flattened and or maybe nuked
7 Maybe world ends
8. Maybe wheb iran sees its entire.country demolished it has a “he is a mad man I give up” but ita a big risk
The “TACO” factor is exactly why the NYMEX futures are still lagging behind the on-chain perps. TradFi is essentially pricing in a 5th consecutive walk-back, while the prediction markets are looking at the “Duration Math” and panicking.
You’re spot on about the Russia halt. The April 1st gasoline export ban and the 40% hit to their refining capacity from Ukrainian strikes have created a supply hole that the IEA release literally cannot fill.
**A few data points to back up your ‘Blind Optimism’ theory:**
* **The SPR Fallacy:** People think the 572M barrel release is a “bazooka.” But at a 20M bbl/day Hormuz flow, that only covers **28 days**. We are already on day 38 of the blockade. The “math” for a soft landing has already expired.
* **The Chokepoint Risk:** You mentioned Bab-el-Mandeb—if Iran/Houthis actually squeeze that alongside Hormuz, we’re talking about blocking **25% of global oil/gas** simultaneously.
* **The “Loracle” Short:** On Hyperliquid, a whale (“Trader Loracle”) is currently sitting on a massive short with a $111 liquidation price. With WTI hitting $115 today, we’re watching a historic squeeze play out in real-time.
It feels like the market is betting on Trump’s personality (TACO) rather than the physical reality of the supply chain. Deep dive: [https://predictmarketcap.com/analysis/oil-prediction-markets-june-120](https://predictmarketcap.com/analysis/oil-prediction-markets-june-120)
What he is implying to do are WAR CRIMES .. so this will not go well either way.
Everything iran has done has been tit for tat.
If the US destroys every power plant in Iran, I am confident the tat will be making civilization impossible in the gulf states ( bombing desalination plants)
Its too late he cant pull out now, this is only ends with ground invasion
One of these days he will go through with it. An authoritative figure can only afford to be called a TACO a few times. Oil price is but the first chain of many problems; Trump may not even be around to feel the gravity of the aftermath.
Guaranteed global recession or worse, depression. These refineries they are blowing up take like 5 years or more to build, it’s catastrophic damage. If the desalination plants are hit, it’s even worse because the whole GCC area becomes uninhabitable.
Trump and Bibi don’t give a shit, they’re shitty old men at the end of their natural lives
They would rather burn the world than live in peace
Not fair , when it was my time to get rich and for some retirement corpus the global economy upended .
If trump doesn’t taco the stock market will get absolutely crushed and his cronies will make a killing off of puts. Everyone buying the dip will get just wiped out and there will finally be real fear in the market. Best risk/reward for Trump’s pockets.
Iran is getting bombed. Regardless.
Either by Trump. Or, if he calls a ceasefire, like every time peace talks get mentioned as being successful, by Israel.
And Iran knows this.
You honestly think a leader who has had his country bombed while the government sat at the negotiating table will do a deal ? They’ve been burnt by that before.
You think a leader whose wife, children and parents were killed on the first day is going to strike any sort of deal?
And thy know whatever Trump & Co say, Israel is going to keep on bombing.
You can’t bomb your way out of a problem you bombed your way into.