Step 1: Hint something -> liberation day, to iranian protestors help is on the way
Step 2: Posturing and Positioning ->How US is getting ripped off by everyone, send ships near Iran, send ships near venezuela
Step 3: The strike after market close -> Liberation day announcement, Maduro operation, Operation Epic Fury,
Step 4: All financial asset goes lower as they furious reprice Trump's actions
Step 5: Trump hints at something that will last a long time -> Tariffs, War with Iran, Risk assets goes down further
Step 6: De-escalation signals appear -> Countries begging us to reach deals, We are in negotiation with Iran
Step 7: Feedback Loop and further threatening -> Keep saying crazier and crazier things like sending Iran back to stone age, 100% tariff on China, Destroy entire Iranian civilization <- We are here
Step 8: The Deal -> resolution happens and it is a lot better than what markets expect, asset prices repositions rapidly. Trump furious reframe the narrative and goals to not look so bad.
Just a reminder of the Trump playbook
byu/IvoryTowerResident instocks
Posted by IvoryTowerResident
38 Comments
We are not in a bull market. We are in a bullshit market.
I hope there will be a deal; for the people in Iran.
hes set a hard deadline of 8pm tonight or he will strike iran hard. thats a pretty clear cut line in the sand. either he backtracks and looks weak ASF or goes through with it, which doesn’t end well for anyone.
Pretty clear, now the problem is Iranians are willing to find out…so we are kind of in a position where one nation wants to threaten genocide on a level that would make Hitler blush and the other is willing to die for their beliefs…USA does not win that because we are widely not in favor of the war…
Yep, today(probably afterhours) he’ll make some statement talks are progressing and strikes are indefinitely postponed. Markets pump
Well the point is he is too much of a loser to make a deal which Iran would agree on and he cant just simply leave
Okay… so what happens when the dementia man’s strategy doesn’t work?
The difference is he could unilaterally undue his dementia tariffs. Iran’s leaders don’t give a shit about making a deal. They are bunked up deep somewhere and will let their people die in mass rather than make a deal.
That’s the Trump playbook when he has the power to be both the arsonists and fireman. Not the case here. Iran has a lot of leverage.
Also we’re not in negotiations with Iran. Passing unrealistic wishlists to third parties trying to mediate is not negotiating.
So embarrassed of being American. We are the fucking terrorists on this shitty timeline
Ok and what happens when he has lost control and his adversary refuses to negotiate?
He delays.
Which is what is happening.
So his only options now (ignore all your previous ones) are either accept defeat that the strait remains closed, or escalates. Both are terrible for energy markets, and thus the economy.
This guy wants his legacy to be dropping a nuke. If it happens it’s going to be a bear market for a looong time
Thanks for putting this out there. It’s not like he hasn’t written a book on this or anything but people either don’t read or don’t understand what they read. This is a perfect summary with all the requisite application points.
He’ll say they’re making a deal after close tonight, even if they’re not. Markets will pump regardless of underlying damage done or constraints to be felt in the future. It’s not what should happen. But it’s what will happen.
If he walks back from this again, for the 5th or 6th time no one will ever take him seriously on anything again
And if he follows through on it he also comes out on the losing end because the U.S will be seen as psychotic, chaotic and totally off the rails and not a country anyone wants to deal with.
Its really a lose lose situation
Really great job, just A+, thanks MAGA for giving us and the world this unhinged loon
The problem is tariffs are not comparable to critical physical energy infrastructure. You can undo tariffs, you can’t undo exploded missiles into the critical infrastructure
I take perverse pleasure in seeing conspiracy theorists losing money in the market.
Only problem markets are sky high so it’s possible for them to not reset.
My greatest hope at this point is that there is someone left in the military with enough balls to not allow him access to nukes….
Iran dies not care about any deal at this point. The strait will remain closed.
This expectation for a TACO that pumps markets was understandable 2-3 weeks into this conflict.
We’re now in ***week 6*** of the war that was supposed to end in 4-5 weeks when it started and the Strait remains closed, attacks on regional O&G infrastructure happen daily, and Iran is still launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles a week, with *improving* effectiveness.
Trump clearly has no plan to end this war or reopen the Strait. This war is a complete catastrophe and even the best case scenario at this point is a unilateral US withdrawal which would still be terrible for global energy stability and is increasingly unlikely to happen
Dude thinks he’s got Trump all figured out……call Melania, I’m sure she’d like to know too
The market should literally be pricing in a decent chance Vance is president in 8 hours now.
Past performance does not indicate future results though.
He did take action in Venezuela.
Mainstream media pushing the narrative that everything is collapsing. Meanwhile big whales are probably secretly starting to load up. Classic playbook.
Now add in all the insider trading
How is this a play book? It’s just a list of things he’s done.
Why before 8pm or first sign of TACO I’m buying. Can sell immediately if guessed wrong as I trade 24/5. Good thing it’s not Friday. Waiting until Sunday night too much stress
Mass devastation on an unprecendented scale is on the table. We are already doing vast harm to civilians that could potentially escalate. I just can’t get behind rubbing my hands together gleefully wondering how to profit. Check your emergency fund is healthy, get out of margin, and do something good for humanity today. Really.
Iran holds all the cards, and they know it. I don’t see them settling for peace, they haven’t lost anything they are not willing to sacrifice yet. They are waiting for 200$/per barrel of oil because they know trump won’t go full boots on ground. Trump is sinking in quicksand. All Iran has to do is keep shaking its fist. But what trump has to do is boots on ground or nukes. Iran is holding trumps balls in their hands and they know it.
cool 25th amendment now
The religious dictatorship of Iran is going to make a deal while Israel is cleansing southern Lebanon? Sure dude.
This is exactly right, this is his strategy he literally wrote in his book “art of the deal”
This is what some of you voted for.
The last breaths of a dying superpower. And you had it so good.
You forgot step 9: he shits his pants then goes golfing.
Literally if you’re trying to analyze this lunatic and his douche squad, you’re gonna have a bad time.
Trump said he was going to learn Spanish (he’s good with languages) and become President of Venezuela. I’m going all in on the Venezuelan Trump bump.
I think he’ll do a half asses watered down attack tonight, claim we wiped them out, pull all forces out, and behind the scenes secretly pay off Iran to just open the strait.
I think Iran will be open to it knowing this boondoggle will prevent anyone from attacking them for the next 50 years.
You’re literally trying to make a playbook for a narcissist? Yeah good luck with that lol.