Moody’s top economist says the job market is sending a signal that the US may already be in a recession

**From Business Insider’s Jennifer Sor:**
The economic downturn Wall Street has been fearing may have already arrived, according to Moody’s top economist.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he’s been looking at one signal in particular that suggests the US economy may have already tipped into a recession. It’s called the Vicious Cycle Index — an economic gauge that Zandi said he and his team at Moody’s created, which recently flashed a positive signal for a recession.

The indicator is loosely based on the Sahm Rule, the famed recession indicator that says the US is in a downturn when the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point over its 12-month low.

The VCI operates similarly but reflects changes in the five-year moving average of the labor force participation rate, which has been declining steadily over the past two years. Reflecting those changes means the indicator likely provides a “clearer signal” when the economy enters a downturn, as it accounts for “discouraged workers” who have given up on finding work altogether, Zandi wrote in a LinkedIn post on Monday.

The VCI rose above 1 in January, suggesting the economy entered a recession that month, Zandi said. The index remained in recession territory through February and March.

[Read more. ](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-market-signal-unemploymen-trate-mark-zandi-2026-4?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=insider-economy-sub-post)

may lol

Noticeable increase in sub-prime loan defaults, veteran mortgage defaults, unemployment rate slowly trending up, drop in international tourism, weakening dollar, partial government shutdown, lowering consumer confidence, and many other factors that make it hard to paint any sort of rosy picture.