ETH pumped 7% today but my system just flagged 28,540 ETH flowing into exchanges — here’s what I’m seeing under the hood

I run an automated system that monitors orderflow, on-chain movements, and microstructure data across major coins. ETH had a great day — +7.09%, stablecoin supply hit $180B ATH, general risk-on mood from the Iran ceasefire.

But my system raised a few yellow flags specifically for ETH:

28,540 ETH hit exchanges today. That's a significant inflow in a single day. Exchange inflows historically correlate with sell pressure preparation — someone is moving coins to a place where they can dump them. Doesn't mean they will, but my system tracks this as a warning.

VPIN is at 0.82 — approaching danger. For context, BTC's VPIN is at 0.91 (extreme). ETH isn't there yet, but 0.82 is elevated. Informed participants are more active than usual.

CVD is falling. Cumulative Volume Delta on ETH is bearish — meaning net selling volume is increasing even as price goes up. Aggressor ratio at 0.34, sell-side heavier but not panic territory.

StochRSI at 99.75 on the 4H. ETH is at the absolute ceiling of this oscillator. RSI 74 = overbought. The $2,273 resistance level is the one to watch — if it rejects there, a pullback toward $2,100-2,180 is where my system would start getting interested.

The whale picture is actually bullish long-term though. My system tracked three large cold storage movements today: 43,334 + 34,240 + 22,238 ETH. These aren't exchange deposits — they're moving to cold wallets. Whales are accumulating while price is still in fear territory (F&G index at 17).

The setup I'd need to see:

1. Pullback to the $2,100-2,180 range
2. Exchange inflows calming down
3. CVD divergence resolving
4. VPIN dropping below 0.7

Also — CPI data drops April 10. I go completely flat around macro releases. Hot CPI print could easily send ETH back 3-5%.

The stablecoin ATH is genuinely bullish medium-term — that's dry powder sitting on the sidelines. But right now the short-term microstructure says "wait for better prices."

Anyone else watching the exchange inflow numbers today? Curious if others are seeing similar patterns.

Not financial advice. Sharing my system's output for discussion.