Over 100 airstrikes on Beirut in 10 minutes. Christian neighborhoods. No warning. Netanyahu says the ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in response. Tankers getting stopped. Saudi pipeline attacked.
WTI down 16.5% to $94. Brent down 13.6%. Gasoline down 10%.
Nasdaq +3.3%. Nikkei +5.4%.
So let me get this straight. Israel starts a new front, bombs the hell out of Lebanon, Iran blocks the most important oil chokepoint in the world… and the market says "risk on, oil is fine, buy tech"?
Either traders think Israel knows what it's doing and this blows over, or nobody wants to admit that Netanyahu just blew up the global energy market and somehow oil is the only thing not reacting logically
Israel launches 100+ strikes on Beirut, oil still crashes 16%. Make it make sense.
byu/Goldenmentis instocks
Posted by Goldenmentis
27 Comments
The stock market is rigged. Just accept it
Nothing is logical anymore.
Market reads only the good news and ignores the bad news.
It is all manipulation, pump and dump.
Time to make money off the bulls!
Because the rich market makers only care what Trump says, not the reality on the ground.
Let me explain it to you in the simplest way possible: price drives narrative. Reddit bears š» are convinced itās vice versa. Donāt over complicate it more than that.
Reddit is wrong again (RIWA)
There’s money to be made by the rich
But the downstream effects are felt by the poor
Stock market is still just happy that there would be a talk between Iran and Trump on Friday.
The stock market rises and falls with U.S. news.
Today, the cycle is all about the two week ceasefire with Iran & temp reopening of the strait.
The secret is to stop trying to make sense out of it and just accept things the way they are. People much wealthier and more powerful than any of us are in control, so all you need to do is figure out how you can profit from it.
Meh lebanon and israel is like a proxy front. As long as the big boys meet at the big table no one cares what the smaller guys are fighting over.
Did you lose money on the lastest ceasefire?
Do you think most investors (I.e., people) make sense? Probably not. And investors are the ones who buy and sell. Trying to āmake senseā of the market is useless.
You dont like cheap oil? Almost like you are mad about it.
You trying to match up news with market movements is the issue. The market moves THEN news is attached to it to create a narrative, not the other way around. This has actually been a really standard mid term year in terms of market movements, four years from now we will have similar choppy movement (same as 2022 and 2018) and people like you will continue to be confused because you fundamentally do not understand how markets work.
If it made sense, every one would be rich.
Worse outcome was priced in.
Because its about rates. US not engaging in wars means budget deficit less than if it does, less borrowing needs, lower rates, better for stocks.
Beirut isn’t the Strait. You’re focused on the wrong thing. Are you even invested in stocks or just here to provide noise for people who are? Your post isn’t even about stocks, and should be deleted by mods.
There’s a club, and you and I aren’t in it.
The lebanon action was priced in? The israels are crazy, but we know that already.
The president showed his hand and is looking to descalate.. pretty desperately by the looks of it.
The market expects the straitĀ to re-open.
Geopolitically, the barking of the rabid dog matters little when its owner has made it clear that he intends to withdraw.
Concerning oil, it’s already up massively from pre-conflict levels. And as an asset class that does not rise forever but instead finds a new floor, it is around where it should be until new escalations or resolutions arrive.
The market is also forward looking. As long as all sides want an out (ignoring the rabid dog), things should resolve in a year or two at most, which is all the market cares about.
Would not be surprised if you underperform the market given how you think you are such a genius drawing first-order conclusions from public news and how you bring up irrelevant facts like the bombing of christian neighborhoods for emotional appeal during stock analysis. 10 thousand civilians can die and the market couldn’t care less as long as it doesn’t impact earnings or discounted cash flow.
The more sense I try to make out of it the more money I lose. Buy and hold good companies has never failed
Israƫl yelling fuck your calls and fuck your puts
Lebanon doesnāt have a straight to block
Bibbie is not important. Donnie is.
Market makers sit on the movement until after-hours so they make all the money while you miss outĀ