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    Iran shuts Hormuz again after Lebanon strikes and now oil, gold, and the dollar are all back to humiliating me


    So we get a ceasefire, everyone starts pretending the panic trade is over, and less than a day later Hormuz gets shut again.

    That’s the whole market right now. Oil wants to rip again, gold refuses to die properly, the dollar remembers it still loves chaos, and every “clean” macro setup turns into a crime scene the second a new headline drops.

    At this point I’m not even trading outcomes, I’m trading how fast the market can go from peace cosplay back to apocalypse pricing. The funniest part is that every move still looks obvious right before it makes you look stupid.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz-again-after-israeli-attacks-on-lebanon-kill-hundreds-state-media-2893467-2026-04-08

    Posted by Zestyclose_Mail_4569

    30 Comments

    8. Milf-Whisperer on

      I’m sorry but did you buy puts on oil stocks right now?

      One of the worlds super powers is at “war” with a large oil producer, who has had their own facilities attacked, and have attacked neighboring energy facilities… even if the war was to end tomorrow those facilities are jacked and its going to take time to rebuild and reset up supply lines.

      You wait for the dip and ride the wave back up with calls.

    11. MudBloodLite on

      It’s ain’t a loss until you sell it.
      Either Trump crosses to the other side, and this whole nightmare is over.

      Or we have a nuclear WW3, and we all cross to the other side.

      With the second scenario, I’ll be a hodler in the afterlife too.

    13. Jemmani22 on

      If you weren’t long oil after that dump yesterday you are nuts.

      Rockets are still being shot and shit is still happening.

      To think because the USA is in a “ceasefire” and oil is gonna flow again is braindead. Damage has happened and it keeps happening.

    15. hekatonkhairez on

      It’s pretty obvious that what happened was that Iran didn’t back down and the U.S. got cold feet. Now it’s trying to distance itself from the mess it created but everyone else involved in the scrap still had matters to settle. Iran now has a powerful leverage tool and the US for some stupid reason cannot / is not willing to bludgeon the Iranian control of the straight. The supply disruptions are imminent and will take months to resolve even in a best case scenario situation.

      And because the market is irrational everything will shoot up.

    16. TriXter69 on

      Israel knows by keeping up the attacks, they can break any ceasefire chances and keep the US in the war as long as possible

    20. PhgAH on

      Honestly, anyone who actually believe the ceasefire would last the full 2 weeks is the true regard here.

    30. Alarmed_Jello_9940 on

      So he could just play the market like that huh? Make a peace talk > agreed > pump market for couple hours > order some f16 to bomb something > repeat

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