I think we are in for a bloody Monday… this is a potentially catastrophic outcome and could potentially ensure a recession this year.
the question now is what is Trump's reaction.
I think he essentially has two options.
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resume the war. this would cause a pretty aggressive sell off and I think we would blow past the lows of a couple weeks ago.
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wash his hands of the situation and basically say "not my problem". I think this is the more likely outcome. iran will likely toll the strait independently as opposed to as part of some international system that was probably the intended outcome from the talks.
if trump chooses path 2. he has conceded defeat and I think in that scenario it is uncontroversial to say that Iran benefited strategically from the war.
if he chooses option 1, the economic damage will be incredibly severe and the mid terms and probably any hopes for Republicans in 2028 will be shot.
it is a lose lose scenario at this point from Trump's perspective.
I expect the market to be down 2-3% on Monday in anticipation of guidance as to the above. Trump may signal his answer tomorrow in which case the market will react accordingly.
Posted by Difficult-Quarter-48
40 Comments
No it’ll be fine not a bloody Monday. No one expects a perfect agreement on first try.
You make some good points, but they just failed to reach a deal rather than end the ceasefire. Still probably more talks to come.
Did you not learn from last Tues? The way this works is either it’s pins and needles till an hour before the two week deadline. Or, that deadline gets extended.
Priced it. Market will be green
Priced in
Negotiations were dead on arrival the moment Trump announced that Kushner and Witkoff would once again be involved. I think only Trump can make a deal fair for both sides, atleast he will negotiate in good faith
Sell all your positions now, OP. World is ending on monday. /s
Bearish AF. Worst case scenario is back on the table.
It all depends on if the ceasefire holds
It’s 1, it always has been 1. It was to by time for more troops to get in the region and hopefully change the narrative. If peace talks didnt work then they go back to business with hopefully more support and arms.
Given that there is no word on a subsequent negotiation meeting it could be an indication that the parties are so far apart on terms that a deal is unlikely.
US Navy clearing the strait right now.
Green day
Iran never sticks to a deal.
They lie lie lie
Studies have shown that pessimistic people tend to live shorter compared to optimistic counterparts. The market has learnt this and is turning green on Monday. It’s better to be a bull than a bear during war.
Priced in.
(Been waiting to say that for a long time!)
donald is at the ufc event, he doesn’t give a fuck
Art of the deal. Almost as good as the deal between Russia and Ukraine this administration as managed to broker.
For 1/5 of the world supply getting strangulated the market goes on frenzy. This is market manipulation on steroids.
Its only been a week they said 2 weeks! Would trump lie!??!?
“Bloody monday” 😂
no one with an iq>75 expected a good quick outcome
get real
lol I think both sides want to end this but Iran knows time is on their side and the can win this negotiation. Reddit needs to stop “the sky is falling” mentality
how dare you expect religious fanatics and a death cult to be reasonable.
and no , Im not talking about vance
Oh trust me, Trump will claim talks were productive and the strait is opening fully sometime on Monday morning. Maybe like 20 to 30 minutes after the markets open for no particular reason.
y’all been talking about recession since the last recession 💀 like yes it will happen, maybe on monday, maybe next month or next year
They didn’t reach a deal on the first day of negotiations?? This must mean the end of civilization is finally upon us! Deals are NEVER not struck on the first day of negotiations!!
Hang on to your position(s) in oil and gas.
It took nearly two years for the Obama agreement to be negotiated.
It was unreasonable to expect an agreement in two days
we all know trump well truth something monday morning before they open
Hi I went into a coma when the Cold War started should I have sold? What’s the market like?
Clearly, this guy is new here.
I am SO happy I got out.
At this point I don’t care. I’m just going to buy until I retire
Ok
It’s gonna be green lol, you are using logic which is useless predicting the stock market
I’m not a bull or a bear, but all of this seems like buying time. Iran is fortifying the entrances to the nuclear facility and China is sending technological help. The US has Globemasters that just flew there and is actively testing the limits (the destroyers in the strait).
I don’t know if Trump will back down because it will mean resuming the Epstein files discussion and facing a cratering economy. The war is his best hope at maintaining power longer.
Who us the USA to tell Iran they can’t charge tolls?
talk about a clickbait headline. negotiations are only over for the night because it’s like 3am local time there. they are going to continue negotiating tomorrow.
Yes. He has no good options. This war was an atrocious idea from the start. Its an idea from 1991 that just doesn’t work in 2026. His only real option, I fear, to save face is to go full ham on Iran or use a nuke. His ego will never let him admit defeat