Iran gets wheat and other supplies from abroad. The food prices in Iran have already had risen 42% year over year. So this is a ploy to starve the Iranian people and hope that this creates the conditions for regime change.
The US can only maintain the blockade with support from its European bases. Will Europe stand for this?
VintageBilliard on
I’m probably in the very small minority that feels, that this is probably the only poor option amongst a myriad of very poor options. While this whole war was a very stupid idea, it is what it is, it’s happening. There’s no point in dwelling on might have beens or should haves.
Everyone acknowledges that Iran has leverage as long as it controls the strait. It is generating revenue by allowing select vessels to transit the strait and it intends to retain control in the long term. None of this is tenable. The first two means the conflict extends indefinitely. The third disrupts freedom of navigation of the seas, a pillar of the global economy and sets a very disruptive precedent.
The only way to remove their leverage is to shut the strait to everyone. Now, you could argue, you’re just doing what they were already doing but thats factually incorrect because of point 2, you’re shutting off their relief valve, they are no longer generating revenue. Now, the question is posed, what happens when a Chinese vessel tries to transit the strait? My guess is, they just won’t try. China is wise enough not to test this scenario. They have no interest in a wider conflict and if the ships weren’t willing to test an Iranian blockade, then I’m willing to guess they won’t test an American one.
So what now? A stalemate? Well, in a war of attrition its pretty clear who’s going to win. The Americans will be able to starve them out. Many very negative things will happen in the meantime, that aren’t good for anyone but frankly, that was going to be the case anyway. The Americans have no choice but to regain the initiative and fight this terrible stupid war on their terms. This is a siege now. I see no other viable alternative.
Call it stupid if you like but I don’t see anyone offering up better options frankly. Before you say, just pack up and go home I’d argue that allowing a nation like Iran to retain a chokehold over the global economy in perpetuity is not tenable. The world is saying, you deal with this America, it’s your war of choice, your problem to deal with. Well, now they’ve made it everyone’s problem to deal with, for good or ill.
Feel free to downvote me if you wish, but if you’re going to do it, I’d love for you to say why you think I’m wrong or even better, what the better option is, I’d be willing to be convinced otherwise.
GTR_11 on
1. Price of oil will go up for next month plus. How is that helping us exactly? Mamdani last night said prices in NYC went 66% on groceries ( 100 day speech )
2. Who is he going to block? India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Australia etc …? He wants to confront China straight up?
I need help here. I know there is no plan, but WTF is he doing?
3 Comments
Iran gets wheat and other supplies from abroad. The food prices in Iran have already had risen 42% year over year. So this is a ploy to starve the Iranian people and hope that this creates the conditions for regime change.
The US can only maintain the blockade with support from its European bases. Will Europe stand for this?
I’m probably in the very small minority that feels, that this is probably the only poor option amongst a myriad of very poor options. While this whole war was a very stupid idea, it is what it is, it’s happening. There’s no point in dwelling on might have beens or should haves.
Everyone acknowledges that Iran has leverage as long as it controls the strait. It is generating revenue by allowing select vessels to transit the strait and it intends to retain control in the long term. None of this is tenable. The first two means the conflict extends indefinitely. The third disrupts freedom of navigation of the seas, a pillar of the global economy and sets a very disruptive precedent.
The only way to remove their leverage is to shut the strait to everyone. Now, you could argue, you’re just doing what they were already doing but thats factually incorrect because of point 2, you’re shutting off their relief valve, they are no longer generating revenue. Now, the question is posed, what happens when a Chinese vessel tries to transit the strait? My guess is, they just won’t try. China is wise enough not to test this scenario. They have no interest in a wider conflict and if the ships weren’t willing to test an Iranian blockade, then I’m willing to guess they won’t test an American one.
So what now? A stalemate? Well, in a war of attrition its pretty clear who’s going to win. The Americans will be able to starve them out. Many very negative things will happen in the meantime, that aren’t good for anyone but frankly, that was going to be the case anyway. The Americans have no choice but to regain the initiative and fight this terrible stupid war on their terms. This is a siege now. I see no other viable alternative.
Call it stupid if you like but I don’t see anyone offering up better options frankly. Before you say, just pack up and go home I’d argue that allowing a nation like Iran to retain a chokehold over the global economy in perpetuity is not tenable. The world is saying, you deal with this America, it’s your war of choice, your problem to deal with. Well, now they’ve made it everyone’s problem to deal with, for good or ill.
Feel free to downvote me if you wish, but if you’re going to do it, I’d love for you to say why you think I’m wrong or even better, what the better option is, I’d be willing to be convinced otherwise.
1. Price of oil will go up for next month plus. How is that helping us exactly? Mamdani last night said prices in NYC went 66% on groceries ( 100 day speech )
2. Who is he going to block? India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Australia etc …? He wants to confront China straight up?
I need help here. I know there is no plan, but WTF is he doing?