> Under our baseline estimates, tariff changes through November 2025 raised core goods PCE prices cumulatively by 3.1% through February 2026, **explaining the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre-pandemic inflation rates** and boosting core PCE prices as a whole by 0.8 percent. We also estimate that **pass-through from the 2025 tariffs is effectively complete**
So not only are the tariffs being paid by the American people, they are responsible for all inflation above pre-pandemic levels.
Tariff man could have actually beaten inflation if only he had done nothing. Instead he hit the “increase prices” button of tariffs (and now gas prices).
1 Comment
Directly from the Fed study:
> Under our baseline estimates, tariff changes through November 2025 raised core goods PCE prices cumulatively by 3.1% through February 2026, **explaining the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre-pandemic inflation rates** and boosting core PCE prices as a whole by 0.8 percent. We also estimate that **pass-through from the 2025 tariffs is effectively complete**
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/detecting-tariff-effects-on-consumer-prices-in-real-time-part-II-20260408.html
So not only are the tariffs being paid by the American people, they are responsible for all inflation above pre-pandemic levels.
Tariff man could have actually beaten inflation if only he had done nothing. Instead he hit the “increase prices” button of tariffs (and now gas prices).