I built a macro scoring system that outputs a single BTC bias score (0–100) — here’s how it works

For the past few months I've been building a system that tries to answer one question: what is the macro environment actually saying about BTC right now?

Not vibes. Not Twitter. A deterministic score.

How it works:

The system pulls data across 6 categories and weights them into a final score from 0 (strongly bearish) to 100 (strongly bullish):

• Inflation / Economy — CPI trend, real rates, recession signals
• Fed Policy — rate trajectory, liquidity conditions, balance sheet
• DXY — dollar strength as a BTC headwind/tailwind
• Risk Sentiment — equities, credit spreads, fear indicators
• Liquidity — global M2, financial conditions index
• Bitcoin-specific — on-chain signals, dominance, funding rates

Each category produces its own sub-score. The final verdict also includes a confidence level and the key signals driving it.

What I deliberately avoided:

Letting an LLM decide the output. The scoring logic is rules-based and auditable. LLMs are only used in one place — classifying macro headline sentiment — and even that feeds into the score as a minor weight, not a judgement call.

Current output looks like:

Score: 67/100
Bias: Moderately Bullish
Confidence: High
Key drivers: Softening DXY, M2 expansion resuming, Fed pause confirmed
Headwinds: Elevated real rates, risk-off equity positioning

Supports current / weekly / monthly timeframes and stores snapshots so you can audit past calls.

Still in late-stage development. If this sounds useful to you — whether you're a trader, running a small fund, or writing a newsletter — I'm looking for a handful of people to try it and give honest feedback.

Drop a comment or DM if interested.