$148 not $150 but getting there.
The spot price is the paper price plus premium price(war premium around $40-$45) plus the logistics price around $2-$6.
Posted by millerlit
$148 not $150 but getting there.
The spot price is the paper price plus premium price(war premium around $40-$45) plus the logistics price around $2-$6.
Posted by millerlit
22 Comments
Meanwhile, stock market: 🔥🔥This is fine. 🔥🔥
Aka real oil.
Physical oil is reality, reality doesn’t matter.
***** 7 hours ago. *****
Old news now.
Too bad the futures market is being manipulated to stay under 100. It even tanked today amidst news of peace talks failing over the weekend and Trump’s new Blockade!!Â
No one cares. The little numbers on the screen is the only thing that matters
Nowhere in the world is that the price according to [oilprice.com](http://oilprice.com)
As opposes to digital oil?
The longer they keep it under $100, the more able they are able to liquidate people that went long, while able to stock up on long positions themselves when it will have to match on 21st. Physical delivery doesn’t take place for may contracts until early June too, so there is some space there still.
So if you own storage capacity is there an opportunity to arbitrage the delta?
I guess you’d purchase the futures contract, take delivery and then sell so your profit would be sale price (~150) – transport cost (X) – future contract purchase price (~100)
Investors pulling money in out of market doesn’t make the fuel magically appear in tanks. At some point you will have to acknowledge reality.
So does this mean the US treasury is shorting the May contract? Why is it falling…
In the 2-3 years pre GFC 2.60-3.20 on average per year in the US. That was 20 years ago. The price of food, clothing, etc have all increased, doubled or even tripled in some cases. It’s silly to imagine fuel will stay below 4.00 forever. $150 oil in 2026 feels like a shock but it shouldn’t when you considering inflation has hit everything else.
Features are only at 98.00
Stock market rejoices!!! Buy buy buy
Real oil is fake oil, futures is the real deal
Seems like a game of musical chair to me with not enough chair to sit.
Market manipulation is the only reason why paper isn’t 150+ a barrel right now. Paper usually runs a 10-15% premium to physical simply because a paper contract is the cost of the oil+the cost of storing/managing the oil until its potential delivery date.
If traders are wrong and there is real oil shortage out there in the real world, you can expect futures to shoot up real quick. A lot of countries have released oil from their SPRs filling the demand for a short time. No one can manipulate a market as deep and liquid as oil for a long time. The consensus is clearly that Trump will take an “offramp” soon hence why markets are trading the way they are.
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Question for more experienced investors: Are E&P hedges typically settled on paper market values?
I think many of us who are investing in E&Ps are dreading the Q1 reports in which outstanding cash flows are accompanied by large paper losses from mark to market of collars, swaps, and short calls. If the futures market is suppressed by widespread short speculation, however, that means the cash flow gains, particularly for companies selling into the Brent market, will still be substantial ($148 dated Brent – $95 Jun futures even for a 100% hedged E&P).
where can you track dated brent price? all i could find are futures…