When a naval blockade is announced but then partially walked back, how do commodity markets typically price that ambiguity?

Today Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, then US Central Command clarified it only targets vessels going to and from Iran specifically, not all traffic.

Oil initially spiked — Brent up over 8% at one point — then settled around 4.4% higher as the partial walkback registered.

From an economics perspective, I'm curious how commodity markets typically handle this kind of announcement ambiguity. The initial headline creates a price discovery problem — is this a full blockade, a partial blockade, or a negotiating tactic? The market has to price something before the full picture is clear.

A few related questions:

First, is there documented evidence that commodity markets systematically over-react to ambiguous geopolitical announcements and then partially correct as clarity emerges? Or do they typically underprice initial risk?

Second, the ceasefire technically remains active until April 22 despite the blockade announcement. What's the economic framework for pricing assets when two contradictory policy signals are simultaneously active?

Third, with CPI at 3.3% last week and oil back near $100 today, what's the transmission lag between a renewed energy price spike and the next CPI reading? Given second-round effects may already be embedding from the first six weeks of the conflict, how should we think about the additive inflation impact?