I've been a big believer in TSM for a while and I'm surprised more people here don't have it as the foundation of their portfolio, or at least the non-index fund portion of their portfolio. Even if you assume multiple compression down to their historical average, they don't need explosive growth at all to generate good returns, they would need somewhere in the ballpark of 15-20% eps growth depending on what assumptions you use. Their growth for the last few years obviously far outpaces that and should continue given their dominance.
The cagr for data center spending should remain high. Even if you don't buy Anthropic's cybersecurity arguments about Mythos, its performance on objective benchmarks like coding and humanities last exam were extraordinary. And, this argument is a bit more dangerous, but even if you don't think AI ROI is coming anytime soon, hyperscalers view not building data centers as a game theory disaster and have explicitly stated this. They believe the risks of not building are greater than the risks of building.
People focus on the China risk because it's flashy and scary. It reminds me of how people are say scared of terrorism or flying, but don't think twice before texting and driving. The risk of owning a stock where they could lose customers or pricing power is what should really scare you. The china threat should be a part of TSM's valuation, but I genuinely think given TSM's moat they are overall a low risk investment.
SK Hynix meanwhile is set to get somewhere between 60-70% of Nvdia's HBM orders for Vera Rubin. Dram prices are supposed to remain high, there's a decent amount of new supply coming online in late 2026, but nowhere near enough. Even if it the DRAM cycle ends sooner than projected, there's a pretty good argument that HBM is not commoditized. It's highly complex, not easy to produce at scale, and uses more wafers than DRAM. They trade at an even more attractive valuation than Micron. Yes it's a bit of a pain to buy them since you need to buy their GDR ticker HY9H. Their ADR is coming this year though I believe. SK I'm less confident in then a couple of my other names, but I'm shocked about the lack of discussion.
There are also so many upcoming huge booms I don't see talked about at all. Installing and defending undersea cables is going to be huge going forward. Europe even identified defending these cables as the #1 threat to their security. I don't see any discussion on here of Prysmian, NKT, or any of the European defense primes.
Why the lack of interest in TSM and SK on this sub? Why essentially 0 interest in small to midcaps?
byu/Designer_Respect4285 instocks
Posted by Designer_Respect4285
3 Comments
I am in TSM, and I like the position that the company is in sans a new conflict.
That said reddit subs can tend to silo off, and become more of an echo chamber than a sounding board.
TSM goes brrrrrrr, I’m a strong believer of TSM since I’m from Taiwan. I will never stop buying TSM.
For those who don’t know, $DRAM etf is convenient way to get exposure to Samsung and SK Hynix. Much prefer it to all in $MU or $SNDK these days.
$TSM never disappointed me when buying the dips. Great company. Could be lot higher if Taiwan wasn’t sitting right under the chin of China.