Assuming a cease of attacks next month and gradual normalisation of transit through the Strait of Hormuz by July, we revise demand from +1.43 mb/d y/y growth (pre-conflict outlook) to a marginal contraction of 0.02 mb/d. Losses are concentrated in Q2 2026, Asia-Pacific, and light ends. The downgrade reflects mobility disruptions, supply constraints and policy responses, and macro-price effects. Risks remain skewed to the downside if Hormuz disruptions persist.
Liquids demand to fall this year, but not as sharply as in Covid-19
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