hey all. was wondering what you all think of adobe's future.
for the longest time Adobe (at least in my eyes) had two main strong suits.
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full suite of software all interconnected. (no need to deal with a different company for every piece of software you need).
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being the industry standard (would be tough to migrate an entire team to a new software)
they also seem to have never had any real competition for the above two advantages.
however it seems like they are slowly getting squeezed from all sides. although that's no surprise for a company, I don't know how they'll pull through this? (I guess that's why I'm not the new CEO who will have to navigate this).
they always had basic competitors to individual software (DaVinci, affinity, blender, Autodesk, figma, etc etc.) they never took more than their specialty, and create an actual suite of services.
however it seems to me that for the past few years, they are actually starting to intrude into that space. few days ago DaVinci (which is already significantly better then premier pro) announced photo editing. canva is 100% trying to make Photoshop and Lightroom obsolete with their acquisition of affinity, and merging it all into one free program. blender already has an enormous studio of 3d modeling, 3d animating, 2d animating, CGI, VFX, and more. figma completely annihilated Adobe when it comes to ui and ux design. and they keep adding more and more tools (photo editing, programming, etc.) and obviously Autodesk is already used by all the studios for it's set of tools.
and like I said before, it's obviously no shock that a company has competition, but I don't think Adobe ever really had so many companies coming from all angles, and all trying to create bigger and bigger suites of tools (which like I said, is adobe's main advantage).
and their second advantage is only a temporary advantage before all the newer hobbyists, creators, and companies, start using the significantly cheaper options.
and all throughout, Adobe barely seems to be innovating IMO.
what do you all think about this? I'm probably overreacting thinking that they will lose their crown as the top. but maybe others feel the same.
How do you think Adobe will pull through?
byu/Mean-Reputation5859 instocks
Posted by Mean-Reputation5859
11 Comments
I don’t.
Their customer base hates with with passion. Corp and relations on the other is still their as their advantage. Tbh I’m not optimistic but let’s wait for the new CEO because the stock has been 50% I think if people buy the CEO story the stock will skyrocket
They seem like sitting ducks.
>Adobe barely seems to be innovating IMO.
This could have been the entire message.
They are failing to integrate the best AI solutions into their creative suite.
Large, established companies typically cannot out-innovate the startups.
They have a strong loyal following and Photoshop and Lightroom are industry standards, but at some point if you can upload an image to AI and have it do the work in seconds that would take hours in those tools, it is going to hurt their business.
ADBE was in a downfall even before AI threatened their business.
Everyone loves “cheap” stocks, but in this market, putting money into ADBE is wishful thinking, and ignoring the numerous opportunities for wealth creation in stronger names.
Most of us are only aware of a small portion of ADBE’s business. ADBE is really a publishing operating system that is in no danger of being seriously displaced.
Still, the stock can flounder for years and my statement still be true. The value is just barely below the 2022 cyclical low. It can go lower if the AI concerns persist. One or two earnings releases are unlikely to persuade the doubters.
I don’t think it’s a zero, but I can see it as going similar to how PYPL has over the last few years. Bounces, but a gradual erosion lower – gradual enough to have people keep trying to call the bottom over time rather than being shaken out earlier on.
Its ass. So many other good names to invest in. Cant believe people wanna invest in this falling knife. Maybe itll work out but that companys moat is dying imo
Adobe is more compelling than ever for me as a pro user. I tried to switch to the affinity but just couldn’t feel comfortable. I write off the expense anyways and its not worth trying to save some money when it saves me so much time
I also see adobe actually being able to monetize their AI workflows. We use the image generating credits all the time for architectural visualization.
I also saw ads about how they’re using AI for rotoscoping in premier, stuff that I would have loved to use when I was working on that sort of stuff.
A sustainable business is profitable, free is not free, especially with compute cost. I just don’t see their competitors beating them in the enterprise space.
Adobe will make me rich, 1/4 of all accounts are Adobe (avg price now 240, before you laugh), so today I’m finally in the green haha.
Im not Buffett where I’ll never sell a share, but Ill never sell a share til 500, then I’ll probably sell half and see what else is hated and buy that.
Adobe is the highest quality company I’ve ever seen so hated. 10 to 13 percent top line (same as amazon btw), effectively debt free, capital light, 40 points profit margin, buying back 8 percent of its float at current price. It’s as amazing in its valuation as Tesla is overvalued
All bc AI killed it. At the bare minimum if that was true I’d expect some dent from 2022 til today, but in fact no, mrq re accelerated to 13 percent.
I think Adobe is the most disrupted by AI
Most people don’t even know what Adobe does fully. They think it’s just a pdf reader and photo editor.
Just like people thought Meta was dead when it was $95 a share in 2022