Interesting Data – 15 minute interval bets on BTC this year.

Prediction Markets have 15 minutes bets based on the simple average of crypto like BTC, SOL, and eth and they open at 50% (meaning $1 wins you $2 minus fees). I would have predicted that if you simply bet down for each 15 minutes these past few months, you would be profitable this year, but it’s actually about 50/50, with UP having the edge.

For January 1, 2026 12:00 AM to April 18, 2026 7:00 PM, we have 10,348 interval points (which means 10,348 possible wagers)

Up / Down / Even labeling (based on consecutive simple averages):

• Up: 5,208 intervals (50.33%)

• Down: 5,139 intervals (49.66%)

• Even: 1 interval (0.01%)

‘Up’ and ‘Down’ are based off the simple average price vs it’s last simple average price at 15 minutes. With fees includes, if you bet down every single time this year, you would be down money. But even if you wagered on UP, you would STILL be down money.

If you made a $1 bet each time on UP with a 1% fee for each bet, means you would have spent $10,348 up front and have 5208 wins, assuming a 50% rate means 5208×2= $10,416. So you’re up $70, but now we have at least a 1% fee per wager, which accumulates to at least $103.48 in fees if we’re assuming it’s only 1%, or 1 cent per $1 wager. So now you have you’re back down to $10,312.52, so you’re down $36 even if you predicted the majority of wins.

Even today with the price going down it remains about even.

Summary (for the full day’s available 15-minute intervals on April 18, 2026):

• Up: ~49.8%

• Down: ~50.2%

• Even: 0.0% (no exact matches observed)