What institutional flows looked like this week (COT + CME)

Over the past week I’ve been tracking both the COT data (which reflects positioning up to Tuesday) and the CME daily changes that happen during the rest of the week. I’m sharing a few observations in case they’re useful for anyone following institutional flows.

One thing that stood out is that equity futures showed consistent buying pressure. The COT already showed an increase in commercial positioning earlier in the week, and the CME data from Wednesday to Friday continued in the same direction. Even Friday’s slowdown didn’t look like distribution, more like a pause after several days of inflows.

Crypto was interesting because the COT signal was pretty small, but the CME data showed several days of accumulation. That usually means the activity is more tactical and happening through futures rather than through longer‑term positioning.

Metals were mixed. Gold had a small positive change in the COT, while silver and copper showed declines. But CME flows leaned more toward buying. When the structural positioning weakens but the short‑term flows turn positive, it often ends up being more of a short‑term adjustment than a real trend change.

Energy had the clearest divergence. The COT showed reduced commercial positioning in crude and natural gas, but CME flows were positive for several days. That kind of split usually means institutions are trading the sector tactically rather than building long‑term exposure.

In currencies, the COT showed increased positioning in the euro, pound and yen, while the dollar index weakened. CME flows were generally aligned with that. It looks like the dollar lost some momentum this week.

The most consistent theme was in bonds. The 5‑year note had a strong increase in commercial positioning, and CME flows in the rates complex were positive for several days in a row. The 2‑year and 10‑year didn’t show the same strength, so the interest seems to be concentrated in medium duration.

Overall, the combination of both datasets points to moderate risk appetite, interest in equities, some rotation away from the dollar, and a clear preference for medium‑term bonds. Energy and metals look more tactical than structural, and crypto flows seem to be driven mainly by futures activity.

If anyone else is tracking these datasets, I’d be interested in hearing how you’re interpreting the divergences this week.