Been watching this all weekend and Sunday afternoon flipped the setup. Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that Round 2 US-Iran talks happen Monday evening in Islamabad. Iran's IRNA came back a few hours later saying they haven't agreed to that, US "announced the date to pressure Iran."
So Monday oil is potentially pricing a deal-track that the other side is publicly rejecting.
Trump's actual language in the post is worth reading because it's different from past threats. Not "we'll bomb Iran" generic. Specifically: "the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" if Iran doesn't take the deal. Power plants and bridges are infrastructure-strike target categories. That's how you talk after picking the list.
Three things changed over the weekend that moves oil beyond Friday's print:
BIMCO (world's largest shipping association) advised Friday to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to MINE threat. Not blockade, not IRGC fire. Specifically mines. Jakob Larsen (BIMCO chief security officer): "not declared safe for transit at this point." First industry-body warning of passive denial infrastructure. Precedent is the 1987-88 tanker war where mines took months to clear.
WSJ reported US is preparing to escalate from turn-back to BOARD-AND-SEIZE posture on Iran-linked tankers in international waters. Currently 23 ships turned back, zero boarded. First boarding of a Chinese-owned shadow-fleet tanker (Rich Starry precedent) is a direct US-China maritime incident.
Saturday IRGC fired on the Indian VLCC Sanmar Herald (2M barrels Iraqi crude). Second Indian-flagged Jag Arnav forced to retreat. India summoned Iran's ambassador. First neutral-major-country diplomatic protest.
Friday's 10 percent WTI drop was on the "completely open" headline Iran posted then rescinded within 20 hours. That framing is gone. Ceasefire expires Wednesday. Round 2 is disputed. Oil reopens Monday carrying weekend info that wasn't in Friday's close.
Been mapping the longer arc (blockade mechanics + CBDC infrastructure rails + 2019-2020 parallel) in the deeper write-up. Link's in my bio if you want it.
Monday oil is about to price a Round 2 ceasefire talk that Iran just said they didn't agree to.
byu/Mother-Grapefruit-45 inoil
Posted by Mother-Grapefruit-45
16 Comments
It should be up which means it’ll probably be down
Oil is up 8820
The IRGC and the negotiators are two different factions now lol
Everything’s priced in already, no matter what.
physical delivery prices are still at 120$+
Just watch the perps on hyperliquid, they trade all weekend. https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/km:USOIL
Be patient
Oil will go down as everything is priced in already miraculously. The only way oil goes up is if nuclear bombs are dropped on every oil facility in Asia and Europe. That’s just how the market works now.
If y’all aren’t buying uso at a discount I don’t know what to tell y’all.
The biggest thing that will show up on TV screens this week is the fact the Oil Front month futures expire Tuesday. Then it moves on to June futures.
So Monday / Tuesday might have some wacky trading for everyone to settle, but then Wednesday will look like an alternate reality in comparison.
This is going to get [Interesting](https://youtu.be/GBb8wysp3HA?si=kZsN9j7wf8WtVt5C)
Remember TACO Tuesdays tweet is going to be “AS A GESTURE OF GOODWILL AND THE NICE GUY THAT I AM IMMORDERONG ALL OUR BLOCADE TO BE OFER ASAP THANK YOU FOR YOUR STRWNRION TO THIS MATTER SHARPIE PAPERCLIP AUTOPEN”
Why wait til Monday? Future market opens 6 pm eastern Sunday lol
I think it’ll be down slightly and stay even tomorrow until the next announcement.
What even is this post? You’re mad you think the market won’t do what you think the market should do?
Lmao this subs become an unfunny version of wsb.
I agree market’s almost as retarded as this post…
whatever it does, it won’t make sense. yay.