Just read the recent analysis published yesterday (April 19) by Alex Thorn over at Galaxy Digital, and it’s a pretty sobering reality check for anyone still waiting for the traditional post-halving face-melt.
He basically highlights that the current cycle is breaking historical models.
The TL;DR of his analysis:
- Diminishing Upside: The 2024 halving cycle is "dramatically" underperforming previous ones. The crazy volatility and massive price surges we associate with halvings are fading.
- Shifting Dynamics: Historical patterns are no longer a reliable blueprint. The market structure has fundamentally changed.
- The Takeaway: The long-held assumption that a halving automatically triggers a massive bull run is becoming dangerous for investors.
My thoughts: It feels like the quiet part is finally being said out loud. We’ve been talking about the law of diminishing returns for a while, but the ETF approvals seem to have completely front-run the typical halving liquidity. We aren't trading a niche retail cycle anymore; we are trading global macro.
How are you guys adapting your strategies? Are you still operating under the assumption that the 4-year cycle will eventually kick in, or is it time to accept that BTC has entered a completely new paradigm?
Is the 4-year halving cycle officially dead? (Thoughts on the Galaxy Digital report)
byu/richpinky3 inBitcoin
Posted by richpinky3