Posted a full macro breakdown today. Here's the short version.
Markets hit all-time highs Friday because Iran said the Hormuz strait is open. Oil crashed 11%. Everyone declared the energy crisis over.
It's not over. Mine clearance takes a month. Oil takes seven weeks to reach Asia. Inventories are depleted. The futures market ran ahead of the physical barrels and I'm calling WTI back toward $95-105 before end of Q2.
But that's not even the most important thing happening right now.
May 15 is. That's when Powell's chairmanship expires. Trump can't confirm Warsh AND keep the DOJ probe into Powell alive at the same time; this is a genuine trap with a hard deadline. I ran the bond market math on what a Powell firing attempt actually looks like in practice. It's not a political story. It reprices your mortgage, your REITs, and every dividend stock you own simultaneously.
Also ran the numbers on the tariff pass-through timing, the household energy cost impact for Canadians, and a gold allocation model that shows exactly why 5% isn't enough right now.
Check out more here
Not investment advice.
Three things happening in markets right now that I think are being completely misread
byu/Lettura_ inenergy
Posted by Lettura_
4 Comments
Trump and his cronies are manipulating the market to make windfall profits off of insider trading. They’re holding the world hostage in order to make record profits.
Yeah. The Canadian government has been buying the CMBs (Canada Mortgage Bonds) since January 2024, 50% of the whole market. They are trying very hard to suppress the mortgage rate! So far they have bought nearly 100 billion dollars of those junk bonds as RE price in Canada falling cliff.
They will drop the DOJ probe. They’re not going to fck the markets over something stupid like that.
Iran (and US republicans) filling their own pockets by manipulating the oil market.