Ceasefire expires tomorrow, FOMC in 8 days ，the vol structure this week is genuinely interesting

The next eight days have two hard catalysts with clear binary outcomes.

Tomorrow: ceasefire expires. No confirmed extension yet. If it extends or a deal is announced, oil stays soft and risk-on continues. If it lapses, oil gaps up and the dollar gets a safe-haven bid. Last Friday's Hormuz opening gave a preview — oil moved 10% in one session on a single announcement.

April 28-29: FOMC. Market is pricing 97% no change. But the press conference matters. Powell will have to characterize the post-war inflation damage and whether it's transitory or embedded. A hawkish lean reverses some of the dollar's recent slide. A dovish lean adds to it.

The interesting thing about the vol structure right now is that these two events are close together but have different implied volatility profiles. The ceasefire is a pure binary — high IV, short duration. The FOMC is more nuanced — lower IV, but the tail scenarios are significant.

If you're thinking about selling vol, the FOMC-dated options might be more attractive than ceasefire-dated ones because the directional outcome is more bounded. The ceasefire outcome is genuinely unconstrained on the upside for oil volatility.

What's your read on current IV levels relative to the two-event setup this week? And is anyone specifically structuring around the April 21 expiry?