Yields are still elevated, and expectations around rate cuts are getting less clear, which usually isn’t what you see in a clean risk-on environment. This week should give a bit more clarity with U.S. retail sales, PMI data, and inflation prints coming out. Those will matter more than the headlines because they’ll show whether higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions are actually starting to hit consumers and businesses.
So far, it feels like markets have been reacting more to news flow than real data. If we start seeing weaker spending or sticky inflation, that current “everything is fine” narrative could shift pretty quickly. Central banks are also in a tough spot here. Growth is slowing, but inflation, especially from energy, hasn’t really gone away. That limits how aggressive they can be, and it’s something the bond market seems to be pricing more carefully than equities.
Feels like one of those moments where things look fine on the surface, but underneath, signals aren’t fully aligned. Do you guys thinkg this is this just a lag between markets or is one side clearly wrong??
Stocks are pushing higher like uncertainty is fading, but bonds aren’t really buying it.
byu/ChartNavigator ininvesting
Posted by ChartNavigator
2 Comments
Inflation is pretty alright for stocks – until the interest rate increases.
But why increase interest rates, if the economy (consumer) is struggling?
Point is – inflation might be transitory/sticky at around 4% without interest rate increases.
I am by no means a macro economist.
It’s pretty simple: earnings are going up, and with oil rising new fed unlikely to lower rates in June.