Repeating this comment wherever I see anyone talking about Trump's brinkmanship:
WSJ recently reported he has told aides he purposely tries to sound as unstable as possible to get concessions from the Iranians. I don't believe anything he tweets. It's all a farce. He is full of shit.
He has given and extended multiple deadlines multiple times.
It's not called TSCO. It's called TACO. Because Trump ALWAYS Chickens Out.
My recent trading strategy has been to buy the euphoria dips in oil, and sell into the fear premiums for oil. Trump will never, ever, ever tank the market. Ever. He will sooner withdraw the blockade.
Posted by ub3rm3nsch
20 Comments
wow ! fascinating !
He for sure sucks!!…He is trying to save the US market, but honestly, the reality is different, and the market will finally correct to actuals rather than just his tweets.
Oil will keep going up, of course, the dollar will get stronger.
Love this sub. I started following after I had multiple sleepless nights last week thinking the end of the world was nigh (stupid me I know), but now I have a better grasp on the markets and what motivates him, so find that somewhat calming. Potential for crushing increase to the cost of living notwithstanding ofc.
Isn’t attacking Iran in the first place the opposite of taco?
To make this convincing you have to say “he will sooner allow Iran a tollbooth and live daily with costing his own economy freedom of navigation of the earth’s waters, woth China to install the next toll booth on the Strait of Taiwan.”
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Counterpoint: He also insists his incoherent tangential ramblings are something called “the weave.” That’s not it. His brain is mush.
I’ve been doing the same thing you have because I don’t think he’d intentionally tank the market. But I’m moving towards assuming he’s decompensated enough to not have full rational control over his own behavior. Mixed with he’s being fed only the news he wants to hear – and may not grasp how bad things are right now…if anything the market climbing raises the risks of him overpaying his hand.
Post positions or delete. Because this post is a farce. Everyone in this sub needs so much attention but it will never be enough.
I reckon Trump might be backed into a corner in the end and have to go in on Iran. The UAE wants money from him; Iran wants recuperation for the current damages before they’re willing to open the strait up, and he’s trying to save money in the US economy.
apparently he was trying to drop a nuke on saturday… i mean ^^
I don’t love the “chickens out” phrasing from his critics because it suggests he should follow through with doing the thing, but he’s just too chicken. You call someone “chicken” to taunt them into doing the thing they’re hesitant to do. Rarely would it be good for almost anyone other than himself for him to follow through on his threats. In this case I’ll be thrilled to hear he’s chickening out on nuking a bunch of civilians.
I prefer “Trump is short-sighted, mostly full of shit, and is going to do whatever strokes his ego the hardest or benefits him personally the most” but that doesn’t really fit in an acronym.
Madman theory worked wonders for for Nixon remind me how did Vietnam end again?
Yes. Reporting today that general Caine had to hide the nuclear codes from Trump. I think this is fed to the media by Trump and his aides to make him seem more crazy and dangerous. Because we cannot know that is still scary.
Please explain to me how Trump is going to “chicken out” and iran is going to open the strait and all of the oil infrastructure will be repaired?
The taco is extending the “ceasefire” until a deal is made. Blockade will likely stay and strait will stay closed. Market doesn’t care about the strait anymore anyways. There is enough oil without it I guess.
Doesn’t matter if he chickens out or not.
Oil flows are still shut in.
The market is betting on what the think Trump will do, when it should be betting on what the Iranians will do.
Off course, Jezus is without violence.
He ain’t got no choice. The laws of supply and demand will remain undefeated
Yea no way he doesn’t extend the ceasefire its impossible he doesnt
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