I am working on a SPXL using ole reliable chat gpt that back tested a conservative SPXL long strategy way an imperfect timed flip to SPXS. I’m aware of the problems with leveraged etfs and the daily reset but was wondering if I’m trying to get too technical with the strategy or if I should mostly shut out the short flip. Current strategy has a 2-3 times per year flip based on a combination of the VIX and crude futures. Chat gpt estimated a 40-80% return year over year if performed perfectly, a 20-60% return given the human urge to predict the flip. Was just wondering if this strategy is stupid or not. I still intend to sell out when the VIX hits over 28-30 and crude rises above 90-100. This would put me out of the market for a day or two before entering SPXL again. The idea is to miss most of the pull back and gain the returns on the way up. Let me know if I’m dumb please.
Posted by FreeBird5919
1 Comment
It will depend on how you did the backtest.
I tried playing around with ChatGPT as a way to back-test and my experience is that ChatGPT doesn’t have the data or the correct training to do back-testing correctly.
So – you can’t really depend on using a tool like ChatGPT for back-testing – unless you really already understand how back-testing works.
Your strategy itself may be viable but I think that it’s a correlation that is already well known. But you really need to check on the risk-adjusted testing.