The spike and retreat in futures costs proved that the market has no clue how oil actually works, and I find that kind of terrifying.

For those who don't know, there was a real weird spike from 92-95 and back again of futures prices that happened around 5pm pst tonight. After looking around I found out that it was caused by rumors on social media of renewed strikes in Iran. The problem is that these were June futures we're talking about. There is literally nothing that could happen today in Iran that would significantly decrease oil availability around the world in June. Sure, if the Strait of Hormuz opened today there could possibly be a significant enough amount of oil delivered by June to reduce oil prices but nothing happening there should increase oil futures for June at this point. I keep waiting for the market to realize that the oil shock is already locked in. I thought that this week when the last possible ships with oil from Hormuz arrived everyone would start accepting that we are in a legitimate crisis. Instead the entire global market is acting like a couple words from the president can reverse things even when they're demonstrably false. And this surge just proved that the oil market is just as ignorant or in denial of reality as the rest of the world. And that terrifies me, because so much of our world is dependent on oil in one form or another and if we fail to manage that market correctly it can fuck so many things up.