I’ve been looking into the valuation gap for EchoStar (SATS) and believe there is a significant asymmetric opportunity here.
The Core Thesis: SATS currently holds a ~2% equity stake in SpaceX. With SpaceX’s recent confidential IPO filing at a $1.75T valuation, that stake alone is worth approximately $35B—which exceeds SATS’s current market cap. You are essentially getting their massive spectrum portfolio for "free" at these levels.
De-risking the Balance Sheet: The market is still pricing this as a distressed legacy satellite provider. However, the upcoming $22.6B wire transfer from AT&T for spectrum assets fundamentally changes the debt narrative. As this capital hits the balance sheet, I expect a significant institutional re-rating.
The Trade: Jan 2028 $190 Calls. * Theta Shield: With 20 months of runway, these LEAPS provide enough time for the SpaceX IPO to be fully priced into the ticker.
- Volatility: Current IV is sitting around 55-60%, which is relatively low considering the upcoming catalysts.
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Posted by Paranoid_Android211