I’d feels like everyone is predicting huge price increases. Well, everyone except the people actually buying and selling oil futures.
MarsTellus13 on
I’ve seen in a few places variations of the idea that generalist (ie commodities traders) are moving along like business as usual while specialists (folks familiar with the nuts and bolts of the actual logistics and reality of oil transport) are freaking the fuck out.
ViolenceIsBad on
Do you think these youtubers believe it enough to be long oil?
Scroll down a bit on the second link to see the adjusted for inflation numbers. In that context the $80-$120 range doesn’t seem that out of whack, and as it drifts up to $200 the long term demand destruction will be wild. It feels like we are looking at a shock, but unclear how this sorts out over the next few years.
I’m assuming that the end state for this will be the US blowing up most of Iran’s oil refinery capabilities, continuing low to medium intensity bombing on a fairly constant basis, and a through reevaluation for anyone who has relied on mid-east oil for the last fifty years. At some point that means that most of those trapped ships wind up looking like writeoffs.
Who comes out ahead? What does the pricing look like over time? Too many variables, but I wouldn’t bank on Hormuz opening any time soon. But I also wouldn’t bank on oil staying at anything like $150+ for an extended period.
4 Comments
I’d feels like everyone is predicting huge price increases. Well, everyone except the people actually buying and selling oil futures.
I’ve seen in a few places variations of the idea that generalist (ie commodities traders) are moving along like business as usual while specialists (folks familiar with the nuts and bolts of the actual logistics and reality of oil transport) are freaking the fuck out.
Do you think these youtubers believe it enough to be long oil?
[https://www.macrotrends.net/2483/brent-crude-oil-price-history](https://www.macrotrends.net/2483/brent-crude-oil-price-history)
Scroll down a bit on the second link to see the adjusted for inflation numbers. In that context the $80-$120 range doesn’t seem that out of whack, and as it drifts up to $200 the long term demand destruction will be wild. It feels like we are looking at a shock, but unclear how this sorts out over the next few years.
I’m assuming that the end state for this will be the US blowing up most of Iran’s oil refinery capabilities, continuing low to medium intensity bombing on a fairly constant basis, and a through reevaluation for anyone who has relied on mid-east oil for the last fifty years. At some point that means that most of those trapped ships wind up looking like writeoffs.
Who comes out ahead? What does the pricing look like over time? Too many variables, but I wouldn’t bank on Hormuz opening any time soon. But I also wouldn’t bank on oil staying at anything like $150+ for an extended period.