I’m looking at the Energy Metal thesis for second half of 2026

Nobody seems to be talking about the fact that aluminum is solidified electricity. If you look more closely at the historical data from second oil crisis (1979-1980), energy costs went parabolic, aluminum prices increased 107% in 6 months bc smelters in Europe just couldn't keep the lights on. Now between Middle East instability and the world bank projecting 24% jump in average energy prices for 2026, the most floor for aluminum is moving quite fast. Also, China has been disciplined about 45 million-ton production cap. Most people are focused on EV demand but I think the real one here is the supply-side deficit. China Hongqiao is one of the few names with their own power grid and upstream bauxite, their Q1 net profit was up nearly 38% YoY. When LME prices catch up to the physical tightness, the guys with the lowest cost-per-ton are going to have huge margin expansion.