I was hunting for some companies, found some that looked solid, nothing hype, nothing magical. Rather boring companies, like I got an IoT company that was looking solid. Since buying, it is up 30% in the last 3 months. It feels unreal, 50% in 6 months, and 100% in year. So it looks really good, it keeps going up, but like I don't understand why it is a slow, steady constant growth at such a rate. I would think if they post good numbers, people flock to it, money moves, investors buy up, etc. But then it just keeps going.
Now I need to decide to buy another stock that is 50% more expensive than most of what I bought at.
Anyone else have that same difficulty? Like buying AMD today for 200/share, when it was 66/share like a year and half ago.
Any else find it difficult to invest in a stock that is on a tear?
byu/bluefootedpig ininvesting
Posted by bluefootedpig
10 Comments
The past matters little. Just look at forward prospects.
The best performing stocks continuously hit all time highs. You have to get in at some point.
I have the opposite problem, when it’s running up obviously they’re doing something right, and if they’re still on their way to expanding there’s no reason not to get in while you can.
This seems to be the case with almost everything worth buying right now. It’s difficult to feel “clever” or ahead of the curve buying anything right now.
I think it depends what the business is. The market is pretty frothy and full of elation in a lot of areas, so I think approaching things that fit into the “irrational exuberance” model should be approached with caution. Like a Nebius would fit the approach with caution model. Palantir also, and arguably Tesla.
Others you can make the case the recent run is just the start, I.e. Amazon to me might fit more into that category, and is actually historically undervalued from where it normally trades. I think you have some margin of safety with the absolute dominance of e-commerce which is less likely to be disrupted by AI than say a Microsoft. People will always need physical goods. The Amazon ecosystem is beyond sticky and I couldn’t quit Prime if I wanted to. There’s no substitute that’s even close. I’ve had bad customer service on Amazon – threatened to cancel, and could almost hear them laugh because they knew I wouldn’t and couldn’t. That’s how you know a business has competitive advantage.
As opposed to a Microsoft who’s business model is you paying a license for a half broken email product like Outlook that they can vibe code in the future for a fraction of the costs.
If I had to pick from the top 10 companies in the S&P that will be in the top ten decades from now – i would consider Amazon and Berkshire the strongest contenders. These are the strongest buy, hold, forget about it investments. I like these type of investments a lot because they reduce timing errors and human judgment mistakes. Buying and HOLDING forever is key.
I’ve always struggled with it because when they’re bleeding it’s hard not to imagine you just buried money for years. For that reason I just don’t do it much.
MU seller at $350 back a few weeks ago
I bought my GOOG stock when it reached to 319 ATH and plummeted into the 290s this year and look at me now! All it takes is letting some stocks cook a while.
Not really, if it’s on a tear and a hot stock, it’s probably for a reason. You can always get in, and average the price down when there’s a market pullback. And in his market with this president there are plenty of chances.
I have been wanting to take some position in NBIS for a while now because I believe in it long term as the sector is still strong.
So yesterday I finally pulled the trigger and bought a 2028 expiry slightly OTM LEAPS Call contract even though it is trading near ATH.
anchoring is doing all the work here. AMD at 200 vs 66 isn’t expensive or cheap on its own, depends on forward earnings. if 2026 estimates are 2.5x what they were when it was at 66, then 200 is actually cheaper on multiple basis. share price is the wrong unit. easier fix: start with 1/3 position and add on dips, removes the top-tick fear without missing the ride