Sp500 is currently at ~66 trillion dollars market cap, assuming a conservative 8% annual growth rate. sp500 will reach 1 quadrillion in 36 years.
This means that the top company in 30-40 years will likely be worth more than 70 trillion (more than the current Sp500 market cap right now), if we take nvidia/sp500 ratio right now and apply it to the future top company in 36 years.
This means that no good company right now is too expensive in the long term. Companies like google, Microsoft, nvidia and etc can still 10X long term!
Posted by Fungai2334
5 Comments
More like 10 quadrillion pfft
sounds like a plan, let’s go all in everything, they can only go up.
Meanwhile wages continue to lag behind.
Wow guys, if you assume stocks go up then stock prices will be higher 🤯
The market cap is tied to how the latest shares of the stock trade on the open market and may not accurately reflect the company’s actual liquid value
The stock market is worth $60 trillion but the total money supply is less than half of that. If you wanted to sell the whole market who would even buy it? For what price.
The market in a nutshell is this
I buy a piece of paper for $1
Cut it into 100 pieces
Sell one piece for $1
I now have $1 and 99 pieces of paper worth $99
Someone else buys that one piece I sold for $1,000
On paper my 99 pieces are now worth $99,000. I still have $1 and 99 pieces of paper. No guarantee that other market participants would pay me $1000/share for my pieces.
The market cap of companies can become dramatically overextended based on ravenous overspeculation on the open market.
We are now in the second most expensive US equity market behind only 1999-2000. The earnings growth is real but highly concentrated in a single sector and companies like NVDA and MU.
Even if we don’t have a crash we should not expect the stock market as a whole to grow 8%/year consistently for the next ten years UNLESS we have another massive inflationary event like COVID.