so spacex ipo june 8th roadshow, 1.75T valuation, retail gets 30%. what im actually trying to figure out is what happens to RKLB and ASTS after.
im a long term holder, like 10-15 years out, not trying to flip the ipo. just trying to figure out if i should pick up either of these and when.
honestly im torn on RKLB. on one hand why would anyone buy the small space stock when they can just buy actual spacex now. but on the other hand RKLB is basically the only other real vertically integrated space company you can buy, and if spacex trades at 100x revenue then RKLB at 75x suddenly looks reasonable lol
ASTS is the one i keep going back and forth on. its technically a different business (direct to phone, no terminal needed) so it shouldnt compete with spacex for capital in theory. but once spacex is public and on cnbc every day youre gonna hear about starlink direct to cell nonstop and ASTS becomes the underdog story instead of the only game in town. i actually sold ASTS recently partly because of this and now im not sure if i was right or just panicked
few things im curious about:
has anyone been through something similar? i keep thinking about facebook ipo and what happened to the smaller social media stocks but i wasnt really paying attention back then
what about the 6 month lockup expiration, does that drag the whole sector down or just spacex
are you guys planning anything around the ipo or just doing nothing
does spacex being public just kill the ASTS thesis once people can compare them directly
not looking for "just buy voo" answers. genuinely curious especially if anyone has watched a big private competitor go public before and remembers how it played out
thanks
How do you think the SpaceX IPO will mess with RKLB and ASTS?
byu/Aixafaguitarres instocks
Posted by Aixafaguitarres
8 Comments
I think SpaceX is overvalued at the IPO and will drop some, but at the same time these other space companies might get revaluations based on SpaceX’s valuation. So i think we will see an upward momentum for rklb and asts
Space is big enough for everyone
Either the Space X valuation, even after its settled shows people there’s a lot of money to be made in space and we get more eyes on rklb through osmosis therefore increasing the value of rklb.
or
Since SpaceX is so big, it overshadows other space stocks and so everyone who invests into space picks SpaceX instead of rklb. Even then I don’t see it reducing the value of rklb, but maybe just slowing the growth rate.
ASTS is cooked
The thing is – no one knows and it’s a bet. It’s either pump or dump, there’s no third option here.
The general public only invests in ASTS/ RKLB for exposure on the space sector since SpaceX is not available. Once the most recognisable stock is available, it is expected to be have funds pulled from ASTS/RKLB to invest in SPACEX regardless of how good ASTS/ RKLB is due to etf outflows/inflows and general public awareness.
With SPACEx, the competition will get intensified and it will be more reasonable to compare these companies against each other and the true value will get revealed over the long term.
On the other hand, SpaceX listing imho is long overdue, there still exists a basic baseline on the respective companies with a strong support.
In short: short dip in ASTS/RKLB but if you believe in both company thesis and profitability, nothing will change in the long term (>5 years)
I think your right. SpaceX will destroy both RKLB and ASTS. I’m so excited to finally be able to own a part of it
They will see that SpaceX is overvalued as fuck and that 85% of SpaceX revenue comes from Starlink which will boost ASTS. Why buy SpaceX at 2T when you can buy ASTS at 26B who got contracts with 50+ MNOs and got FCC approval for full constellation. Space is big for more than one player. And FCC said there are three in the D2D space. ASTS, SpaceX and Amazon.