1. Suggests that the next labor market report is going to be one where unemployment is little changed.
2. While there may be some mild impacts of Iran on employment and GDP, the biggest impacts will be on prices and wages. Real wages will fall; my best guess is that 2027 will be the time period required to see real wages for all income groups get back to the pre-Iran level. This does assume a one quarter Hormuz closure; longer would push real wages closer to 2030.
3. The structural mismatch between openings and hirings/firings will likely remain as long as this gen of retirees remains in the labor market and immigration remains depressed. Much like in 2007/2009, retirees are likely feeling economic pressure and choosing to remain working, though there hasn’t been a broad based destruction in wealth. Yet.
1 Comment
Best way to look at JOLTS is to just go to the source.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
Quick thoughts:
1. Suggests that the next labor market report is going to be one where unemployment is little changed.
2. While there may be some mild impacts of Iran on employment and GDP, the biggest impacts will be on prices and wages. Real wages will fall; my best guess is that 2027 will be the time period required to see real wages for all income groups get back to the pre-Iran level. This does assume a one quarter Hormuz closure; longer would push real wages closer to 2030.
3. The structural mismatch between openings and hirings/firings will likely remain as long as this gen of retirees remains in the labor market and immigration remains depressed. Much like in 2007/2009, retirees are likely feeling economic pressure and choosing to remain working, though there hasn’t been a broad based destruction in wealth. Yet.