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    $ASTS 5th major 40-55% drawdown since Jan ’25… just another day in the office or conviction breaking?


    Since January 2025 this thing has gone through five separate 41-55% pullbacks (avg 49.2%), with the longest drawdown hitting 110 trading days. We’re currently in the 2nd longest at -50% over 66 days.

    The chart makes the pattern obvious, these violent corrections followed by recoveries have been standard volatility for ASTS. Painful to sit through, but historically not unusual for this name.

    A lot of people are treating this current leg down like it’s game over, but looking at the repeated behavior, it seems more like business as usual for a high-beta space play.
    Serious question for holders:

    Has this latest drawdown shaken you out, or are you still long-term bullish on the space-based cellular broadband thesis?
    Still diamond handing the full position?
    Trimming or adding on weakness?
    Already tapped out?
    What’s your updated thesis? Has anything fundamentally changed with the satellite deployment timeline, partnerships, or revenue ramp, or is this just more noise in a story that’s played out like this multiple times already?

    Drop your current position, TA if you have it, hopium, or bear case. Looking for real takes, not just “to the moon” spam.
    Let’s hear it.

    https://i.redd.it/j5w4j003pdzg1.jpeg

    Posted by Comfortable-Rule-491

    41 Comments

    5. qbtsquantum on

      Long term bullish , holding ! As you said, this is historical and nothing alarming !

    8. TheBlackBaron on

      I don’t hold much of it, but I’m averaging down what I do have. I’ve got RKLB, NASA, and a LEAP on LUNR too.

    9. Top_Category_2526 on

      It doesn’t have any revenue it will be a trillion market cap tomorrow

    10. DuckRaman on

      Space stuff seems kinda expensive, I just want a house phone again and everyone to stop trying to sell me shit.

    11. Academic_Trash5001 on

      yeah it’s a vibe until you realize the only thing going up is your therapist bill

    13. Waverun on

      I’m in for the long haul but not picking up anymore shares. Lucky enough to have a $25 DCA. Might be time to start selling calls to you degens. I think the satellite market might start getting saturated now once Amazon start spinning up more and Blue gets to a launch cadence comparable to SpaceX. I think the only thing that will spike it back up now will be a SpaceX IPO but honestly every space stock will jump with that news. It would be interesting if ASTS got bought by Amazon to better compete with SpaceX. I think it’ll ultimately all come down to how well the IPO does.

    14. LostAbbott on

      The tech works, all of the carriers are lined up with money on the table.  It is just about getting birds in the sky.  Blue fucked up the last launch and they are scrambling to make it right.  If anything this is a time to add to your position or start a new one.

    15. PresentationReady873 on

      When you never deliver on your constant over promises, this is usually what ends up happening

    16. No-Environment-5762 on

      Sounds like great tech but pretty bad execution in terms of launches. Delaying launches also could mean revenues pushed out and potentially another dilution in the future. The blue origin failure didnt help them as well.

      If they had executed as per their initial timelines, they would have been the first to launch in the D2D market. With all these delays, I think it’s a 3 player race best case wirh starlink and Amazon Leo. This significantly drops their TAM. If they delay further, most phones could get NTN features which would be able to connect to any Leo satellites bringing much bigger set of competitors.

      The tailwinds are use cases with defense and IOT but they are competing with all other Leo satellite providers.

      However, sub 50, they are pretty attractive with a good upside. I used to own them at an average of mid 20s and sold them at 80s.

    20. you_are_wrong_tho on

      5650 shares average at $41. I’m adding like crazy at these levels. It will be back up once they start shipping sats. Their tech is still years ahead of any other competitor, they have exclusive agreements with att and Verizon until 2030, vodaphone until 2032. They have other avenues of revenue outside of just commercial use (Military, gov, IoT, etc). It’ll be back past ATH by EOY. Spacex ipo will drive a ton more liquidity/eyes and ears to the space sector.

    21. Imaginary_Ad9141 on

      Long time investor. Only the recent wave of investors (thanks, WSB) are bearish. Granted, been in since $4.

    22. Blamurai on

      I’d buy at ~40. Okay with missing out if it doesn’t. Management lost my trust

    23. rightwhereitsat on

      The amount of people losing out on the inevitable by selling is amazing.

    24. Cav829 on

      I’m starting a new position here and ready to experience some pain in the near term. The TA I did gave me a couple levels: $68.20 (which collapsed), $61-$62, $50-$52, $43, and finally $38-$40 as the theoretical maximum pain short of a larger collapse of the business. Most of those are pivots with some minor gaps in the chart along the way.

      I’m a total amateur so take those for what you will. But I’m pretty comfortable DCAing down from here portioning the money I want to put in So amusingly enough the 50% drawdown isn’t really shaking me. I expect bears to capitalize heavily on the failed launch as a catalyst since the chart broke down. But even searching about, there’s so much interest around $40 if they can get it there, I think that’s the stopping point.

    26. The_Greyscale on

      Holding and adding, with no changes to conviction. This latest downtrend was triggered by a BO failure rather than ASTS, though it has increased focus on their manufacturing and shipping cadence.

      If they hit 45 sats this year, I’ll be shocked, but it’s more or less irrelevant in my opinion. They’ll still be EBITDA breakeven sometime this year around the 25 sat mark if I remember the math right, and their profit margins at lowest levels still make this a multibagger in the next few years no matter how you slice it.

      Even before you get into how far behind the curve the rest of their competitors are, there would still be room in the TAM for them to somehow come in 3rd behind BO and Starlink, and still be a fantastic investment.

      Position: 15,000 shares. Probably going to snap up another 6000 to scalp after earnings if they dont do anything stupid and announce an offering.

    27. TonyStarks81 on

      For me the price drop is based mostly on competition ramping up. As far as I can tell that means there is definitely a future market for this service. Also as far as I know, they still have the best tech. Could they fuck this all up, sure. Even if they don’t will this rollercoaster continue as we are years away from seeing the true potential of any of this, absolutely. With all of that said, I bought 2000 shares under $11. If I sell now my life is not significantly different and I still go to work for the next 20-25 years. If I hold and it grows into an absolute monster then I can retire early and tell the story of how I bought some satellite company after reading a two paragraph DD from some degen on a social media page full of degenerate gamblers masquerading as investors and that is why I no longer work. The reward outweighs the risk for now.

    29. swizzle213 on

      Long term bullish. Sat deployment has been disappointing but the latest failure was not their fault. The next SpaceX launch will be much better and get 3 more sats in the air.

      I still dont see the road map to getting 45 in the air by year end but its what the company keeps promising.

      Im long term holding my entire position but my cost basis is also ridiculously low so I can stomach these large swings in price

      15k shares at about a $4 basis. Need share price to hit around $160 to have FU money

    30. SqueakyNinja7 on

      Let’s also consider Rakuten finishing their sale, extremely high call interest, and the increase in short interest. Once a positive catalyst comes again the makes are there for a solid run back up again.

    32. Iggyhopper on

      I bought shares for $10 last year for my wife and like a regard I forgot about it.

      Imagine my surprise seeing in feb that they were almost $100 a piece.

      HOLDING.

    33. ----0___0---- on

      I hold 300 shares I bought around $6 and I’ve been seeking OTM calls a couple weeks out for about a year. Profit ~80% of the time

    39. WhoDatis0803 on

      They had a seemingly major issue with the original composite structures of the new BB2 satellites, which was poorly communicated by them and clearly contributed to the severe delays and missed guidance we are seeing now. They have claimed to have fixed the issue, and should be shipping their first batch within the next 20-30 days. Delays suck, but name me another revolutionary and first of its kind technology that didn’t have delays as they figured it out, I’ll wait. Been holding 2+ years and will continue to do so until I see a major parter like Verizon or ATT cut ties. The future is very bright once they get production 100% smoothed out

    40. DiarrheaFartLover on

      This and RKLB are both shit tier companies that are insanely overpriced. They can both come down like 80% and still be too expensive.

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