This is my first time buying an option (CMPX). I like the idea of options but I didn't want to dip my toe in since I don't understand them yet. However, I bought my first option because I thought it was a layup due to bots screwing up and the stock losing 60% of its value for no reason. This, in my mind, would lead to a massive repricing and free money. Spoiler: I'm an idiot. Here is what I don't understand.
Option Value Decline:
This morning my options were down 30%. This makes sense as earnings passed and the stock was down 5% at the time. However, after close the IV increased from 110-120 to 132 and my chance to profit went from around 20-25% to 70%. At the end of the day, the stock ended up 1 cent higher than the day before but my call's value dropped 16%. I'm guessing maybe this is Robinhood glitching because my Greeks don't make sense either
Delta: -0.5032, Gamma: -0.9410, Vega: -0.0013
- I knew the short interest was high (20%+). However, I figured this was because this is a low volume stock so it would take a little time to leave after a massive payday. However, when I checked the orderbooks today we were in a full out war. The reason the stock dropped 5% when I woke up is a seller flooded the open with sells and I kept seeing orderbook games on the sell side. I don't understand why shorts would still be going after this company.
– You won. The company dropped 60% so you already made a buttload of money and the spike in volume would make it easy to exit your short.
– There isn't much upside risk. The MC is $360M while the company has 195M in cash (reported today).
– The downside risk is immense. The phase 3 data that triggered the crash was misunderstand and is actually very positive. There are a ton of new buyers.
- The max pain was $2. It's now $3. This means there was a massive amount of puts at over $2 purchased in the last 48 hours. Why on earth would anyone be buying a $3 put? On top of that, long interest has exploded so this needs to be done at huge volumes. This seems counterproductive as now the market makers is going to go against the shorts.
If the stock rises to like $2.20, I would guess that would trigger a lot of forced liquidations shooting us up real fast putting the $3 max pain at risk since you have a ton of buy-side momentum.
The final thing that is confusing is the volume is so high. This stock traded at 2-3M per pre crash and post crash it is at 10-13. The options expire the 15th so I would expect explosions then but why 10 days ahead of time?
So, yeah, I'm very confused. Can someone please help explain this to me?
Option Experts – Help! My analysis sucks and I don't know why (CMPX)
byu/Yee4614 inoptions
Posted by Yee4614