Online sleuths are raising more red flags around suspiciously timed Iran-war oil trades

**From Business Insider’s Naomi Buchanan:** 
Oil prices have plunged on reports that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal, a development that paid off big for traders that happened to be shorting crude just ahead of the news.

Data flagged by the The Kobeissi Letter shows that nearly $1 billion of crude oil shorts were opened roughly an hour before an Axios report that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to end the war.

The Kobeissi Letter outlined its analysis in a Wednesday morning post:

*”At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.*

*This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.*

*At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War.*

*By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million.”*

[Read more.](https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-us-iran-peace-war-news-latest-short-markets-2026-5?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=insider-economy-sub-post)