I've been pretty bullish on CoreWeave since more than one year. The thesis was simple to me, AI needs GPUs, GPUs need infrastructure, CoreWeave offers that infrastructure. But last night's Q1 2026 earnings gave me my first real pause.
Here is what happened:
1.) Revenue beat but nobody cares
Revenue came in at $2.08B, up 127% YoY and ahead of the $1.97B estimate. That's genuinely impressive. On paper this is a strong quarter. And yet the stock tanked ~10% AH. Why?
2.) The guidance is the problem
Q2 revenue guidance: $2.45B–$2.6B. The midpoint of $2.53B missed the $2.69B Wall Street consensus by a pretty wide margin. That's a meaningful miss.
3.) CapEx keeps going up and fundamentals stay very very weak
They raised the low end of 2026 capex to $31B–$35B (was $30B–$35B). The reason? Component price inflation. Tariffs? Supply chain issues? CEO Mike Intrator said "it's a problem, but we can navigate it." That's fine, but it's not exactly what you want to hear when the company is already burning through cash at insane rates. Net loss hit $740M this quarter, up from $315M a year ago. I also checked out the ratings on TradingView, MotleyFool etc. and the numbers are really shocking. At Stoxcraft, the fundamentals or Health Score is even rated with 0.4 from 10 points, which outlines the bad financials.
Here are my thoughts what keeps me from hitting the sell button yet:
– Backlog is now $99.4B. That's nearly $100 BILLION in contracted future revenue.
– Strongest bookings quarter ever, including a $21B commitment from Meta and a multi-year deal with Anthropic
– 10 customers now committed to spending $1B+ on CoreWeave. A year ago they were 62% dependent on Microsoft. That diversification is much better right now.
– S&P upgraded their credit rating outlook to positive.
– Full-year 2026 guidance held steady at $12B–$13B.
What´s your opinion about CoreWeave?
I've been holding CoreWeave since more than one year but last night's earnings just shook my conviction.
byu/Puzzleheaded_Pay4751 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Puzzleheaded_Pay4751
22 Comments
this either becomes the backbone of AI infrastructure or the most expensive bonfire in tech history
Why sp pumping when there’s hentai virus?
Can’t wait for more goblins to run the world, thank you AI
CapEx really feels heavy.. the real question for whether it’s worth staying in I would say is what will be the economic lifespan of their infra, will they eventually make decent margins? Since it’s kind of easy to increase backlog when you’re buying and renting out GPUs etc. below cost at this current buildout cycle
literally a stop gap data centre provider until the hyperscalers complete their own build outs
same with NBIS, not to say they haven’t been good wealth creators, but long term = strong pass
Beats are already priced into 99% of AI stocks. It’s just not good enough anymore.
if it’s in the press, then it’s in the price
Isn’t the company valued at $70 billion. That $100 billion in backlog doesn’t seem so impressive against that market cap, especially since we don’t really know if it’s gonna be a profitable backlog.
tbh if one earnings report makes you want to fold after holding for a year, you have paper hands and belong behind the dumpster at wendy’s. either double down on your calls or hand your portfolio over to someone who actually hates money as much as the rest of us.
It’s now down only 6%. Do we see it opening flat or >10%?
It’s now down only 6%. Do we see it opening flat or >10%?
Thanks !!🙏
It looses money. It’s eps is negative. What’s the road to profitability?
Just like Carvana last year when they went from 70 dollars to 1 dollar. Market was like yeah you can sell more cars than your competitors when you sell for a loss, Whoop-de-doo.
None of big players, with real profits, who’s capex is driving this market want to rent datacenters. They want their own to rent to customers. Amazon/Microsoft wants everything in house to rent to their customers. If anything, they’ll auction the chips at coreveavs’s bankruptcy.
High revenues low margins.
The leverage is in the underlying chips, software, service, and components.
Coreweave is not that. They are an integrator and operator. Will get squeezed in all ends. Especially the hyperscalers and for corporate cases on prem private ai.
Bookings are not reliable. We don’t know the contracts but usually there is an out for the other party. So take only a % of the bookings as real.
Hyperscaling is a scam op. Take profits and then leave.
Isn’t Coreweave an actual scam?
https://youtu.be/K6xALgeaSZM?si=bgG10n1FbAsx0d_G
31$ Billion capex for 100$ Billion future revenues smh! Looks like an execution problem to me than fundamentals. I would wait for a positive quarter and then start entering in
Still quite a long way to go. There will be time for discounts and that’s when I’m grabbing some xD
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Is Coreweaves backlog the same $100 billion that keeps getting passed around?
Is the $100 billion in the room with us now?
No trust me. Buy more.