currently debating between 8/21 expirations to play for a 10-20% pullback. Intel ran up harder and feels more susceptible to FOMO from the 24/7 recycled headlines of potential partnerships but at the same time they are already worth a third of TSMC while still burning billions and being a year or 2 from operational. Utilization and gross margins will remain questionable, apple seems to also want to only use them for lower end chips and market seems to not give a shit about any risk associated with their foundry anymore. As for AMD their IV only gone up like 5% this week vs intel 15% and they are starting to get pretty close to their Openai/Meta target that creates a 20% dilution but i remember seeing somewhere that about 80% of the shares unlock when the price hits 500.
if u had to pick one INTC or AMD puts?
byu/AnaIyze inoptions
Posted by AnaIyze
8 Comments
Maybe good maybe shit *shrugs*
Your money your choice
Why would you try and call the top at this point? Poor decision imo
Don’t. Neither
Both are very much offsides. However, getting the timing right to short this is very hard.
I’m personally looking for a double top or once semis start to chop for 1-2 weeks. That’ll probably be the signal that it’s topping out.
Then I’m going to short SOXX and most likely do January 2027 expiration.
If intel or AMD is going down, so is the whole semis sector. That’s my reasoning for choosing the etf over either of those specifically.
Based on the cyclical nature of the semi world, the first ones to go down is the equipment so I would short LRCX first.
None
Intc. It’s way overvalued. They did 1 good quarter after years of nothing. AMD had been killing it. It might be a bit high but it’s justified. Intc is not