Market risk model

How do you model the overall market and identify potential turning points? Or risk in the market.

For those who actively track the market, what model or combination of models do you use to measure overall market health and identify potential turning points?

I’m less interested in single indicators used in isolation and more interested in structured frameworks. Here are some I found searching the internet.

– Market breadth

– Sector rotation

– Liquidity conditions

– Credit spreads / risk appetite

– Volatility regimes

– Yield curve / rates

– Momentum and trend models

– Cycle analysis

– Sentiment / positioning

– Macro overlays

– Intermarket relationships

1. Do you use a rules-based model or more of a discretionary framework?

2. What signals tell you the market is transitioning from risk-on to risk-off?

3. What do you watch for early signs of a bottom or top?

4. How do you avoid false signals and overreacting to noise?

5. Are there any indicators, data sources, or books that materially changed how you view market turning points?

I’m not looking for someone to predict the market. I’m more interested in how serious investors/traders structure their thinking, weigh conflicting signals, and build conviction when the market is near an inflection point.

Curious to hear what has actually worked for people over time.