Hey everyone,
Looking at the current macro data for Bitcoin, the asset has just broken above the $80,000 mark and is presenting a fascinating structural setup when compared to the 2018 and 2022 cycles. Based on the regression and Time Weighted Average Price models over at Crypto Weeklies, here is a breakdown of where the market stands.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has managed to break above its prior year's support lines. In typical bear markets like 2022, these levels flip into heavy resistance. Breaking and holding above this zone gives the current rally the benefit of the doubt that it may be breaking traditional bear market structure.
Adding to this, our regression models show that the mathematically derived fair value for Bitcoin currently sits at $78,000. Price action has officially crossed into the upper half of this nonlinear regression model. If this counter-trend rally continues with the same momentum we saw in the 2019 mid-cycle peak, the upper-band resistance ceiling is tracking near $103,000.
However, the risk metrics warrant a measured approach. The Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) model currently places Bitcoin at Risk Level 7. The historical baseline for the asset sits at $28,300, meaning the current price carries a 183% premium. If the rally pushes toward the 103K mark, we would enter Risk Level 8 or 9, mirroring the heavy distribution zones of mid-2019.
We also have to factor in historical seasonality. We are currently entering the second week of May. Historically, the window from early May to mid-June has been a major danger zone for Bitcoin in bear markets. The next few weeks will provide clarity on whether this cycle is completely decoupling from the past or setting up for a classic summer cooldown.
(Disclaimer: NFA. All proprietary models and charts referenced are from cryptoweeklies.com).
Posted by CryptoForecast1