I actually think he’s waiting for a meltdown but he’s careful about phrasing so he doesn’t cause a panic. I think he’s been saying more or less the same thing since the end of 2024.
I sold many good positions twice so far because of the mixed signals from the market and geopolitical environment, and missed on the entire semiconductors rally. It’s as if the market has become an organism of its own that’s not affected by whatever is happening in the world.
I wonder how many of you are sitting on cash or MMFs and patiently waiting for a meltdown to go back in, how many are investing like normal, and how many are trying to time the market to no avail.
What’s your current strategy?
How are you reacting to Warren Buffet’s stance that the market is not attractive and he’s just waiting for a huge correction?
byu/aykalam123 ininvesting
Posted by aykalam123
34 Comments
Did he actually take this “stance” or are you just putting words in his mouth? I know BRK has a large cash position but that doesn’t mean they’re waiting for a broad market correction.
Been sitting on a large % cash for years because I thought the correction was coming. I regret, everything.
I agree it seems totally put of whack but I’ve lost much more waiting than whatever correction is coming
I’m starting to sit on cash now. I will just have no idea when to jump in – not too worried about missing gains for now – a bigger believer that the tank is coming
I think he’s just commenting because people want him to be the oracle of market meltdowns. He’s interested in valuation of individual companies, the short list that Abel mentioned. It may take a downdraft to bring the companies on that list down to attractive valuations, but he’d act if those companies themselves went down even if the market was headed upwards.
It’s a good strategy, to know what one wants to purchase, and wait for it to become undervalued.
Didn’t Warren Buffett recently say that he is getting a bit older and not as cognizant? That is why his retirement was probably one of the best decisions he could make. Thats why he felt time to pass on the torch.
He’s 95, I don’t really care about what he thinks anymore. Missing the AI was big.
They have a large cash position, but the vast majority of their capital is still invested. It’s not like they’ve exited the market and are waiting to reenter. Me, personally? I just stay in the market instead of trying to time it.
Since Liberation Day, instead of buy and hold, I wait for the tweets and became a swing trader.
I don’t try to predict things. I just throw my money in and hope that the future is similar to the past.
Am I wrong? No way to know I guess. But I figure if stocks _don’t_ keep trending up over time then I’ve probably got worse things to worry about than my portfolio.
my response is that the markets have changed, corrections and bear market duration is much shorter than in previous decades. strategy is deploy capital when vix > 30… simple.
Berkshire has a unique issue because they are so large that their opportunity set that can actually move the needle for them is tiny. Buffet has talked about this many times. That’s not true for retail investors. You are conflating apples with oranges
This supports my view, that the best plan is to buy and hold a couple index funds.
>I sold many good positions twice so far because of the mixed signals from the market and geopolitical environment, and missed on the entire semiconductors rally. It’s as if the market has become an organism of its own that’s not affected by whatever is happening in the world.
Gotta be in the market.
I’m holding about 25% in cash and term deposits, but every other dollar is in things I have high conviction will do well over the next ten years.
If we have a pullback I’ll deploy.
If I see something worth buying, I’ll buy it.
Where I’m from housing is coming under increasing pressure after years of being very richly priced. If a fuel crisis/recession hits, my dry powder might well go to that asset class instead…
Meanwhile my retirement account is DCA every fortnight in to index funds.
(Berkshire have a different problem to you. They have to find absolutely massive companies at good prices. There just aren’t many companies around that would move the needle on their balance sheet. Plus they own at least one insurance company…..which drives the need to have a lot of cash too.
Your poverty is your edge.)
good luck cash ber
Warren’s Buffett’s stance is he is 95.
Thinking he is “waiting” for anything is nonsense.
This is why you don’t try and time the market. It’s been proven time and time again that it’s far more beneficial to stay invested and simply add to market dips
Same old question: is this 2000 all over again? Or is it 1997 and the S&P still has another +66% to run?
Personally I don’t even begin to know how to judge that.
Time in the market > Timing the market always and forever.
Just DCA on the way up and DCA on the way down. Just need to size appropriately.
I actually thought a more interesting segment from the Berkshire meeting (that’s isn’t being talked about from what I’ve seen) is they’re developing a lot of the tech stuff in house now instead of just slapping another SaaS product onto their processes.
Warren a raison , le marché est trop haut
We been hearing a bubble for many years. If u weren’t in market u lost out
I recently retired. I have two (really almost 3) years expenses in cash (CDs & HYSA) but the rest stays put in the market. I keep that amount built up by replacing what I use, since right now the market is still up. If/when the market goes down, I will cut down my expenses and live off the cash until I’m out of money before I take any stock holdings out. If you are not retired, meaning you are not forced to use retirement holdings to live off of, I would leave everything put where it is and keep investing at the normal rate you always do. That is the proven way. You cannot “time the market”
Retired 65.
I have my allocation in SP500 and various bonds, MM, “stable value fund” and a few dividend stocks.
I made this allocation and my rebalancing timing to preserve my sanity. In the last several years, I’ve done okay, happy with results, but always have FOMO after selling SP500, and the trend says I should’ve stayed in. But I follow my rules and keep on sleeping.
This time, I’m forced to take a huge cut out of stocks. Hurts. But now I’ve got dry powder.
Buffett is a 90+ year old gazillionaire with a different risk appetite from me.
Buffett’s approach has been “right” for what it aims to do: build long‑term wealth with low risk and high discipline. His strategy—buying great businesses, holding for decades, avoiding leverage, and ignoring market noise—has produced unmatched compounding for over 50 years. It protects investors from emotional mistakes and overtrading. However, it can lag during high‑growth tech cycles, requires extreme patience, and isn’t designed for fast gains or speculative markets. In short, Buffett’s method is the most reliable long‑term strategy for most investors, but not the best for those seeking rapid, high‑risk returns.
I’m actually just sitting, waiting with a gun in my mouth. I’m gonna blow my brains out if the market crashes
The kind of meltdown Buffet is thinking about may never be happening again, or at least only under extraordinarily unlikely circumstances, because people will buy the dip! Buffet lives in the past, like most old people.
Buffett belongs on Reddit being a doomer, seems like he has a following too
He’s 95 years old. He isn’t waiting for anything. He’s leaving his successor a huge cash pile to use where that person sees fit.
I hope and pray my investment account (managed by a third party) is run by people who know more than I do
Buffet can afford to be wrong. Can you?
First of all, two t as in Buffett.
I am 80% in and will go in more soon, after selling the appreciated to 20%
Michael Burry has come to the same conclusion, I think. 🤔
I mean yeah, if you stay out of the market and miss a run, it feels horrible. At the same time, if you’re one of the ones who calls pretty close to the top, you really don’t have to get all that close. But you better be right that you’re near the top. I have multiple accounts. My 2 401s from over the years have gone largely untouched save a small reallocation into international funds that has paid off big time so far. And trust me, part of me would love to just hit sell on that as one of the two accounts is 40% tech funds and 20% international. But that’s why I have multiple accounts I play multiple ways.
I’ve picked and chosen my battles meanwhile. I liquidated heavily in late January when the charts were screaming we were about to break down, and I bought back in not quite at the bottom as I wish I had, but close enough. I’ve sold a good chunk of that off since as I’m happy with those profits. I wouldn’t tell others to necessary copy anything I’m doing. We’re all have different circumstances.
Lastly, you have to remember Buffett wants to invest. It’s hard to move in and out of positions quickly with capital of that size. So he can’t just day trade the way a lot of day traders do. So yes, for Berkshire it pays to wait for larger corrections. They just messed up missing the Covid correction.