I was thinking through a thought exercise that commerce taking place is basically frozen volume wise because there is not a market clearing price. They’re too high. Consumer is tapped out. Since prices are set at the margin, housing for example, is still high due to the cost of the materials of new houses. Not because that is the fair market value of a house in the general market. So the consumer is held down by high interest rates. Corporates however are spending tons of capex due to credit spreads being tight. So they’re getting favorable terms. One has to think that interest rates doesn’t have to fall far before pent up demand drives up inflation by allowing the current prices to clear the market due to borrowing costs decreasing. Unless unemployment ticks way up enough to have demand destruction. Which one will we have, demand destruction or inflation?
How will this play out – with demand destruction or inflation?
byu/Nuthousemccoy inAskEconomics
Posted by Nuthousemccoy