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    The real reason the market is pumping

    It's because the rest of the world has become much less investable.

    The closure of Hormuz ironically/intentionally affects the USA the least out of all the major powers, with the exception maybe of Russia, who is also uninvestable.

    Europe already has an energy crisis. 45-50% of China's oil supply flows through Hormuz, and the rest of Southeast Asian & Japan are completely fucked.

    And by fucked I mean their economies are simply going to have to slow down + inflation.

    Tack on the fact that the US is significantly ahead in AI technology/buildout and aerospace/defense, and you really have no other choice in terms of where to invest your money.

    The real reason the market is pumping
    byu/coolopinionlmao inwallstreetbets



    Posted by coolopinionlmao

    35 Comments

    2. Final_Curmudgeon on

      Nah it’s pumping because tech is spending a shit ton for data centers to increase AI to make writing emails easier and marginally increase productivity by 1.8%.

    3. Aware_Secret_8910 on

      There is truth in the fact that PE has been high in the last years compared to the average because of very bad bond/tbills yields and because housing has not done well in the last year but it does not mean that the market will keep pumping forever.

      Also keep in mind that the dollar weakening and the current AI hype only add fuel to the fire.

    4. BossSuccessful5145 on

      USA government is spending so much so fast, it’s bound to inflate some stocks somewhere, or give somebodies somewhere to invest.

    6. kitbiggz on

      The Computer chip and computer Storage sector is the only thing propping up the markets. I’m bullish on this sector for the next couple years. But we need a good cool down.

      I also think Macro everything is so bad. They can’t afford to have markets in the red purely for optics.

    8. bigdusbeenraw on

      Great points overall. I feel real reason the market is pumping is like you mentioned AI; and MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue) – Look at how many small business are building products and business on all these new AI tools; I think the world cant take their eyes off how AI is allowing a lot of people to cash in quickly even if they start a new AIaaS business go hard and make $15K in 2 months before Anthropic add the same function to their product offering. The main idea is the US is a cash cow right now no matter the political climate.

    9. snbgames on

      It’s April. Look at previous years. April is almost always the start of pump season. Not that complicated. Well, it’s May. But yea.

    10. Actual-Substance-185 on

      That’s a solid thesis but I think you’re underestimating how interconnected everything is now. Sure the US might be less directly exposed to Hormuz disruptions but our companies are still heavily dependent on Asian supply chains and manufacturing

      The AI and defense advantage is real though – that’s been driving a lot of the tech rally even before the geopolitical stuff heated up. Money’s gotta go somewhere and right now US markets are the only game in town with actual liquidity

    13. Fun-Newspaper-83 on

      trillions in infrastructure spending so my boss can ask chatgpt to rewrite his slack message. bullish

    15. notawildandcrazyguy on

      The Europe Stoxx 600 index is way outperforming the S&P 500 this year and last

    16. l-EROMREVILESSEJ-l on

      or.. or… hear me out.. they’re going to print another 10 trillion dollars to deal with the growth shock from Hormuz being shut for three fucking months? If you think these mf’ers aren’t going to cut rates (with inflation about 150 bps above target, btw), you haven’t been doing this long enough.

    17. Dead_Cash_Burn on

      I had not thought of this angle. I assumed big finance is pumping for maximum profit extraction. I guess it could be both.

    20. DirectionMurky5526 on

      Except in the past month the Korean, Taiwanese, Japanese and Chinese stock exchanges have all pumped. The KOSPI has pumped 37%. When accounting for the dropping USD, they’ve all pumped higher than the SP500. These are some of the countries most affected by gulf oil closure.

    27. Reasonable-Pass-2456 on

      Korean market is 88% YTD and 70% of their oil is from Hormuz, according to this regard it should be uninvestable.

    28. Livueta_Zakalwe on

      Looking at the futures price of oil vs the current actual cost of a barrel in SE Asia reminds me of the housing crisis in 2007, or Covid in January 2020. Everyone is pretending this is no big deal. And it’s a very big deal when approximately 10% of the world’s oil supply (never mind urea, helium, etc) is taken off line. I’m guessing we’ll be in for a very rough ride, starting within the next 2-3 months. Not as bad in the US as say Australia, who imports 90% of its crude. But also supplies 30% of the world’s iron ore. Which they can’t get without diesel. We’re about to see an energy shock 4x worse than the 70s. Buckle up buttercup!

    29. faithOver on

      Things are pumping because its AI or bust.

      Half the country about to be paved over for data centers.

      We managed to make this existential. National security. Everything.

      And the FOMO is at the level of “if you miss the boat, there aint another coming. “

    30. CODEX_LVL5 on

      The market is pumping because of SEC release #34-105108 and eSLR implementation, along with global capital requirement loosening all happening at the same time, correlating assets to 1 essentially.

      When the market crashes, it’s going to crash HARD. Harder than you’ve experienced before.

    31. dude67344 on

      The U.S. stock market under performance is pretty large over the last two years. How do you explain that?

    35. fllannell on

      saw this post in r/ETFs today where someone asks others what percentage of their investments they keep in cash. Amazing how most of the of comments by far were people saying they have no cash and all of their money in the market because “time in the market beats timing the market” so they don’t hold any cash at all. sure, that sounds good until the market tanks AND you lose your job at the same time so you are forced to sell at a loss to cover lifestyle expenses. if everyone having all of their money in the market isn’t the sign of a top i don’t know what is.

      https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/kfUXZLXngJ

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