Id hate to make a " how to find stocks" thread because it's probably inquired here frequently. But I'm seriously tired of living aloof or ignorant to potential to serious gains. Like how the fuck did I miss sandisk until last week??
Where do I tap in? Which platforms are best? Which subscriptions provide solid information? Which stats matter most? Im willing to read something daily cause that shit is wild.
What kind of due diligence would have led me to buy SNDK before it ran?
byu/yohosse instocks
Posted by yohosse
36 Comments
Luck and conviction really.
Reddit [r/stocks](r/stocks) is how I heard. I got in at $700. I follow this sub closely. I have found some gems
“if build many data centers, why no need ram?”
“if build many data centers, why no need cpu?”
No news feed, platform, subscription, or indicator will help you find SanDisk before the run up but I also disagree that it’s luck. I would argue finding these multi-baggers is primarily a skill game which requires you to know the market better then the majority.
Last year it was absolutely possible for anyone to put together that 1 the AI trade was not about to end and 2 that the bottlenecks were going to move away from accelerators and into memory and CPUs. However the best time to invest is well before new feeds or retail cotton onto the trade.
Go to where demand will be next. I’m looking at energy because it will be needed for the data center build out. Take a look at First Solar FSLR.
Bro, you don’t need to find winners before they run.
You can join winners AS THEY RUN.
there was chatter on reddit of a NVIDIA card shortage about 2017 or so and there was chatter about a ram shortage about 2 yrs ago.
when the ai bubble started going you d have had to gamble on a provider like litography machines, and had some serious guts.
Personally its very gambly
It doesn’t matter where you look, before it runs, every dd sounds like a madman’s rambling and the general consensus is that it’s not a good idea. And then before it runs, the chart makes it look like all the naysayers are correct.
Only afterwards do you see the successful run and you feel like you missed out and you think that everyone was in on some secret that you missed out on.
Reddit, for all of its flaws and pitfalls, does indeed identify a lot of these stocks successfully before they run, but they’re buried in a sea of DD that won’t play out at all.
Go check out any of the subs, including wsb and penny stocks. There are tons of DDs. The ones that are correct in retrospect probably have like 40 upvotes and a bunch of comments explaining why the thesis is wrong.
My point is that knowing who to believe is next to impossible. However, readings these subs can at least sometimes alert you to the beginnings of a successful run, although when the run starts, there will also be a ton of naysayers telling you that it has already reached the top. AND they are also often correct.
it wasnt this article, but i began to see articles like this mid last year. it was that moment i started buying up MU, SNDK, WDC, and STX
[AI data centers are swallowing the world’s memory and storage supply, setting the stage for a pricing apocalypse that could last a decade | Tom’s Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/storage/perfect-storm-of-demand-and-supply-driving-up-storage-costs)
Read a lot, understand the world around you. Read the boring flings and earnings reports. Stay active and don’t sleep on things. It’s all tedious work and depends on your bandwidth. Staring at those charts daily eventually starts making sense. Certain things make sense once you have some expertise. I am sure you have come across things like that in life where your confidence level is just high. It’s work but all about reasoning and applying yourself. You will be wrong a bunch too. Size positions, be patient. Keep learning. Generic crap I know but if you think serious hedge funds are doing anything different you are wrong. They have some economies of scale and execution capabilities. Your advantage is small size (you don’t have to trade a 100 million that will move the market in process).
As someone who works in tech, kinda kick myself for not doing a deep dive analysis on other plays earlier
Building out data centres is just like building out massive PC’s. All the rage has been on the GPU side. PC gamers knew Nvidia and AMD were king of graphics years ago. You then think about the other components, AI is a mass amount of data, we store and process that through.. largely volatile and non-volatile memory. WDC and Seagate have always been dominant in that field. Sandisk is a spin off from WDC. Then you look at volatile memory, or RAM. SK Hynik and Samsung have been dominant players for years. PC gamers have always needed lots of RAM. Who runs the company Crucial? Micron. I was saying MU was good at $90. Then you start to look at how things are connected together, connectors and cabling. Fibre has been replacing copper to transmit data for a long time. There we have the photonics play, like Lumentum. All of these cables connect to connectors, that’s Amphenol
When you think about the play like that, it almost became obvious
You don’t try to buy the needle in the haystack. You buy the whole haystack and the needle is guaranteed to be included.
Paraphrased from some famous investor whose name is currently escaping me.
you actually have to pick a sector and then look at the large mid and small caps for opportunities. maybe you do some screenings first but then go through them one by one. last year i did a map of ai for example. i didn’t buy what i should have but at least i knew about it!
I found Sandisk mentioned by someone in here one day at $300 in January, I was already in with micron since last March and knew ram was about to explode after the consumer prices went crazy signalling supply shock.
You find them mentioned and then you stress test them. Find every bear cases you can. If it survives, then you have now created a thesis why it will perform well and have experienced why you have conviction in it.
If you trust in yourself and you have conviction, it lets you to buy things before the market realizes a stocks’ potential.
Let me tell you how much anti-SNDK posts and analysis articles were out there when I was stress testing SNDK. It was the majority of the noise. That’s where the conviction is most important. It allows you to initiate a purchase against almost everyone telling you otherwise.
Those who were wrong about sndk usually disappear or double down against it. You also see analysts change their price targets higher once an earnings call comes through positive. Then you learn which voices in the noise are reliable once the dust settles.
It’s very hard. Even fund managers who get paid millions to spend all day thinking about this stuff struggle to consistently outperform their benchmark, so don’t beat yourself up. There’s definitely a fair amount of luck involved. Like the early investors in NVDA just made a bet on gaming, it wasn’t even on the radar as a potential AI powerhouse so while they made a fortune, their investment thesis wasn’t even “right”
Even most fund managers missed Sandisk.
The key is to buy as soon as u see it’s going up …
Buy first then do any additional thumb twiddling
This place is a bear den, I’d avoid it like the plague for stock advice.
Just a bunch of misanthropes wanting to see the world burn so they can say I told you so.
“What are the hyperscalers spending all that capex $ on?”
“Tell me which stock to buy that will go up fast!!!
Getting an early understanding of supply chain issues
Like other commentators said, it’s not easy. I used to cover semis, and the best you can do is focus on what is changing in the industry. The unsexy answer is you generally just follow the companies and force yourself every quarter to analyze the results and you’ll be able to start to pick up when something changes.
I’m always reminded by this report by Kerrisdale: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/STX–Kerrisdale.pdf
It was on STX, but STX was a dog for a number of years. STX kept talking about HAMR but it was never ready and kept hitting delays for about a decade. It finally got ready for prime time like a year ago, and the thesis would be it would drive an upgrade cycle given the superior cost advantages.
If you cover a company well enough, you would have picked up on it. Now, the analyst team who wrote the report got really lucky because of the AI data center build out and that juiced returns, but the core thesis would have likely driven a pretty good investment by itself.
I saw that Sandisk DD last year and I thought was wow this is good.. I feel the same way about the Sony DD now.
Keeping up with new tech and seeing the potential of hbf and knowing who does makes what.
I read some end of the year 2025 article that SNDK hit some insane close to 1000% and looked into it, then after the 30% pop from Jensen, I went in after that pullback. Kept going 5% a day no matter what
I can tell you because I did the DD and didn’t buy. SNDK was still owned 20% by WDC, and in mid 2025, there was little info or previous quarters info to go on as it was a spinoff in February 2025. They didn’t break out SNDK only info, so you couldn’t really see any Q/Q information. You did know for certain that SNDK took on 1.5 billion to pay WDC a special dividend, and that didn’t sit well with me. So there was little research to do and at the time 1.5 Billion was a large percentage of their market cap, so you probably would have just had to be close enough to the AI world to know that their orders would explode because there was little in the past to provide that info.
Prob the same DD that would tell you to short it at these prices
honest answer is hindsight makes this run look way more findable than it actually was. for every sndk there are 20 thesis posts from a year ago on tickers that never went anywhere. vwin90 has the right read on the dd side.
on the actual tooling question, what helps me filter noise is scanning categories that look due for a rerate rather than picking individual tickers. tradingview for general charts and watchlists, thetaedge for options scanning when i want to see unusual flow and iv expansion that sometimes flags institutional positioning before the move. neither would have told you sndk specifically though, that was a memory cycle bet that needed a sector view not a screener output.
bigger unlock for me was joining trends earlier rather than trying to be first. you’ll lag the bottom every time but you also wont be holding bags from things that never moved. Advanced_Honey_2679 had it right on the join the run angle.
Did you not see how expensive every piece of datacenter tech was getting?
Reddit but then use
Seeking Alpha
Though you have to be looking at the company
For instance, it called the ai narrative driving caterpillar
That the data centers would need cats power generators
Substack, seriously.
Look at the market volume data it’s easily been one of the most 15 traded tickers by dollar volume for the past 6 months
I heard Brad Gerstner make a prediction over a year ago on All in Podcast about memory being a bottleneck and I immediately bought MU then SNDK later.
Or you can just throw money at all of them and when the big ones hit hope they make up for the misses
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