In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don’t deserve

I would like to present to you my swing Thesis on Charter communications.

As of Today (mai 12 2026):

– CHTR is at a 12 years low of 147.98$/share

– Market cap as of today is at 19.05B, EV is at 115.35 B, debt around 96.82B

– trailling 12 months PE of 3.85, with an EBITDA of 22.57B, CF of 16.17B, FCF of 4.81B (25% FCF yield…..), net income of 4.91B (all 12 months ttm),

– Debt is heavy, around 96.82B. However,

Around 80% of the debt are fixed rate note of 2.3% to 7.4%. The average % interest of this part of the debt is around 5.3%.

Around 20% of the debt are credit facilities and term loans that are higher interest rate (6.5% to 7.5%)

Annualised interest debt payment is around 5.04B, which is relatively stable since 80% of the debt are fixe rate note. NET GAAP income of CHTR Is 4.91B (which is after debt interest payment), and therefore, I strongly believe that any source declaring that Debt is not well covered by revenue is truly misleading.

I strongly believe that CHTR is undervalued and oversold as of today (RSI 14 days is now below 20..). The movement was largely due to a very bad quarter, with a lot more client losses than anticipated. I don't believe in a 10X story here, but here is why I believe that a 5 to 6 PE expansion will occurs on a short term basis (with a price target on a short term (3-6 months) of 185$ to 220$).

1. CHTR is priced for bankruptcy as of today, which is not the case.
2. Their pivotal strategy as a Mobile virtual networks operator/provider is underestimated.
3. Big telecom like CHTR, especially when positionned as low cost internet providers (largely due to the upgrading of their preexisting Hybrid Fiber-Coax line), have leverage to diminish client losses on the short term/medium term.
4. CHTR historically buys back its stocks with his FCF. COX-CHTR merger has put a suspension notice on their buyback, which is on HOLD right now. FCC approved the merger, waiting now for californian regulation. The closing should conclude during the summer 2026. I believe that any news regarding Californian regulation approval of COX-CHTR merger will make investors repriced CHTR due to the "buyback" floor, which is more "potent" than ever on that very low marketcap of 19B.
5. COX merger will be incremental of CHTR ebitda on the short term, and revenue wise on the longer term.
6. CAPEX is forecasted to DECREASE drastically, artificially growing net income and return to investors.

Disclaimer: I am a shareholder of CHTR (no shit sherlock lol), who bought on may 11, at 148.63$/share average

Any comments is more than welcome, and I also love hearing opposite opinions