Not including China, there are approximately 4.92 to 4.99 billion internet users globally.
In a recent investor presentation, OpenAI projected 100B in ad revenue by 2030, assuming it gains 2.75 billion weekly users over that timeframe.
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/openai-projects-2-5-billion-115959443.html
Interestingly 2.75 billion users is equivalent to 54 percent of all non-Chinese internet users.
As a side note, AI energy demand currently consumes about 3 percent of total US electricity. Analysis and AI companies project this to climb to about 10 percent by 2030. The means with which that energy demand will be met, and most importantly the nonlinearity of commodity prices when your demand is large enough to outstrip supply, has not been factored into the already lofty capex (neither has the skyrocketing cost of ram).
On the other hand, if future earning estimates for semiconductors are indeed correct, then the PEG given those projections shows they are actually very cheap (1.1 vs 1.7 dot com era). While any resolution to the Iran war will crash energy prices and likely be good for stocks in general. Finally there is (or at least there was) the chance of interest rate cuts. so this leads me to the conclusion that a Long Strangle is the obvious strategic move going forward.
To achieve this, I’m buying 50k in out of the money puts in soxl, 20k out of the money calls on DRAM, Nebius, and Vertiv. I also have about 25k in AMAT stock to hold through its earnings season, 50k of Nvidia I bought during Covid, and a bunch of QQQ and VGT from around the same era. I’ve also increased positions in Netflix, Berkshire, and Microsoft. The 125k of upro I can’t sell for tax reasons I’ve covered by a 20k in the money call, which should pay for some of the puts and calls if the market stays flattish.
I don’t enjoy making extreme bets, in some way this is just a tax efficient way to hedge against oil prices rising and these lofty claims by Sam Altman. A 20 percent move on semiconductors over 6 months or shorter offers at least 4 to one returns these days in the options market. My last puts against Navient, ABR, FSK and the rest were a great hedge for the last 6 months, but im 95% out of that position so I need a new hedge. do you think this is the next move, and if not what’s your plan?
OpenAI expects over half of all internet users will be active on its platform by 2030.
byu/Miramarmechanic inwallstreetbets
Posted by Miramarmechanic
24 Comments
We need to combine chatgpt with porn
that energy consumption math is what gets me nervous about all this ai hype. going from 3% to 10% in electricity demand while expecting 2.7 billion users is basically betting on infrastructure that doesn’t exist yet
the play looks solid though, especially covering yourself with that strangle setup. semiconductor valuations are weird right now – either we’re about to see massive returns or this whole thing craters when reality hits the projections
Maybe on anthrophic
God please end the world now
wat how they gonna onboard half the internet users lol
This is actual DD that makes sense
And do what exactly ?
They think they will make it till 2030!?
Do you see netflix recovering anytime soon the way it’s beaten up, or you’re in for the long term game?
They’re gonna flood the web with dogfooding bots, cook the numbers, and fail anyway
open ai is stupid and forgot google exists and is going to take over on the ai front. noone will be able to compete once they got their data centers
I refuse to use any OpenAI product as long as that fuckwad Altman benefits from it. Fuck that stupid ass retard. The world was so close to not having his hands on AGI.
You see the TAM is every sentient being on this planet ,including your pet goldfish
Altman delusional and/or desperate. Even if he actually managed to get as many people to use his products, those in places like India are not going to be profitable enough (cannot afford to pay western subscription fees and advertising won’t pay nearly as much there to cover token costs).
This is not like selling software or movie tickets, where one can do cheaper regional prices in poorer countries, due to negligible marginal costs of every new customer.
I switched to Claude and Gemini a while ago, GPT kinda feels like shit now compared to them
Gemini is just plain better and in their own category.
Losers are Microsoft and Open AI…
I’ve got a handful of SOXL puts myself. Some expire at the end of May and others mid-July.
I think buying puts where SOXL is anywhere above $160 and the expiry is July or later is not unreasonable.
Why?
That is hilarious
I’d rather stay offline forever.
Copium, they need to milk investors for more money somehow. Also what does “active” mean? Use it once unintentionally?
No one trust Sam
Calls on btdr and datacenters
the only way they would be to get users is doing what facebook did. make people use their api